Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 52.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Over 52.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by the scoring trends of both teams. The home team has averaged 28 points in their last 5 games while allowing an average of 32 points. This makes an average total of 60 points which is above the set total line of 52.5. The away team also contributes to this trend with an average of 21.8 points scored and 20.8 points allowed, making a total of 42.6. Their head-to-head record also favors the 'Over' bet as the home team has a 1-4 record against the away team, indicating high scoring games. Additionally, both teams have had explosive rates over 0.20 in their last 5 games. These factors, combined with a model edge of 6.12%, make a strong case for an 'Over' bet in this matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 51.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Over 51.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by a combination of recent performance data and records. The home team has a high 'score against' average in the last five games, both overall (32) and at home (36), indicating their defense has had difficulties. The away team has a relatively high 'score for' average in their last five games, both overall (21.8) and away (27.6), which suggests they have been efficient offensively. Moreover, both teams have had a negative EPA difference in their last five games, suggesting they have been conceding more than they have been scoring. The home team's high 'yards against' average (415 overall, 447 at home) further confirms their defensive struggles, while the away team's 'yards for' average (336.2 overall, 360.8 away) shows their offensive prowess. These factors indicate a likelihood of a high-scoring game, hence
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