San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : NA -7.5 Point Spread (-104)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The San Francisco 49ers have a statistical advantage over their opponents, which makes them a strong bet for this game. Their average home overall score for the last 5 games is higher (27.2 vs 15), showing a stronger offensive performance. The 49ers also have a positive point differential in their last 5 home games, which indicates they've been winning by more points on average. Defensively, they have allowed fewer points per game compared to the visiting team's overall score against in the last 5 games (24.8 vs 20.6), suggesting a stronger defensive performance. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) for the last 5 games is also higher, indicating they've been more efficient at scoring points. Finally, the 49ers have a positive home record vs the opponent (1-0), suggesting they have a historical advantage in this matchup. Given these points, a bet on the 49ers to cover a -7.5 spread
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : NA -7.5 Point Spread (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The San Francisco 49ers have been demonstrating strong performances recently, reflected in their positive point differential in their overall L5 games (+2.4 points). This compares favorably to the away team's negative point differential (-5.6 points). The 49ers have also shown a stronger offensive edge, with a higher EPA for (11.1) compared to the away team's (-3.2). This indicates that the 49ers are generating more expected points per play. The 49ers also demonstrate a higher explosive rate for (0.255) than the away team (0.210), showing they have more big-play ability. Furthermore, the 49ers' L5 home record (2-3) and the away team's L5 away record (3-2) suggests a very competitive match-up. However, considering the 49ers' recent victory against the same opponent (1-0 L5 record vs opponent), there is a statistical edge leaning towards the
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting 'Over' on the 49.5 total in this game is based on the recent scoring trends of both teams. Firstly, the home team has been scoring an average of 27.2 points per game and allowing 24.8 points in their last five games. This totals 52 points, which is higher than the line set at 49.5. The away team, on the other hand, has scored an average of 15 points and conceded 20.6 points in their last five, totaling 35.6 points. While the away team's total is below the line, their scoring has improved in away games, averaging 18.8 points. Moreover, the home team has been allowing more points in home games (26.6 points) compared to their overall last five games (24.8 points). This suggests a higher possibility of a high scoring game. Also, the home team's overall L5 pass EPA (Expected Points Added
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 49.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is backed by several factors. Looking at the home team's last 5 matches, they average 27.2 points scored and 24.8 points conceded. This sums up to a total of 52 points, which is above the line set at 49.5. The away team, on the other hand, scores an average of 15 points and concedes 20.6 points, making a total of 35.6 points. When considering their match-up history, the home team has won the only game played between the two. The model edge, a measure of the betting value, is also positive at 0.017, suggesting that the predicted total points are likely to be higher than the set line. However, there is a level of risk involved given that the away team's matches tend to go under the set line. Yet, the home team's scoring and conceding
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