Brock Purdy (SF) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+168)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on the over of 14.5 for Brock Purdy's rushing yards might not be an ideal wager, considering his recent and historical performance. His overall hit rate is low at 22.4% (11/49), and his home hit rate is marginally better at 19.2% (5/26). His performance against the Panthers is particularly lackluster with 0 successful bets out of 1 attempt. His recent form is also not encouraging, with his last 10 games yielding a hit rate of 30% (3/10), while his current hit streak is at 0 for all categories. His last 5 games have only seen a hit rate of 20% (1/5). The model edge of 0.0669 is relatively small, suggesting a close outcome, but given Purdy's record, betting on him exceeding 14.5 rushing yards seems statistically unsupported.
George Kittle (SF) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on George Kittle to score a touchdown at any time in the game between San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers does not seem promising based on recent performances and historical data. Kittle's current hit streak stands at zero, reflecting a recent lack of touchdowns. His overall hit rate is less than a third (18 out of 58), and he has not scored a touchdown in any of his last 5 games, home or away. Despite a slight edge from the model, Kittle's recent performances do not back this up. Even when focusing on home games, Kittle's scoring rate is low, with only 9 out of 29 games resulting in a touchdown. Furthermore, Kittle has not scored a touchdown in his last three games against the Panthers, indicating that this opponent may present a particular challenge. All these factors suggest a low probability bet.
George Kittle (SF) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the presented data, betting on George Kittle to score a touchdown anytime in the upcoming San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers game may not be the most promising strategy. Kittle's recent performance and hit rates do not yield a strong case for a positive outcome. He has not scored a touchdown in his last five games overall, his last five home games, nor in his most recent matchup against the Carolina Panthers. His longer-term statistics also reveal a lack of consistency, with only a 31% overall hit rate (18/58) and a 31% hit rate at home games (9/29). Additionally, Kittle has not managed to score a touchdown in his past ten games, indicating a negative trend. Although the model suggests a slight edge, the player's recent performance and trends do not support this. Therefore, the data does not strongly support a bet for Kittle to score a touchdown at any time in this game.
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : NA -7.5 Point Spread (-104)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The San Francisco 49ers have a statistical advantage over their opponents, which makes them a strong bet for this game. Their average home overall score for the last 5 games is higher (27.2 vs 15), showing a stronger offensive performance. The 49ers also have a positive point differential in their last 5 home games, which indicates they've been winning by more points on average. Defensively, they have allowed fewer points per game compared to the visiting team's overall score against in the last 5 games (24.8 vs 20.6), suggesting a stronger defensive performance. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) for the last 5 games is also higher, indicating they've been more efficient at scoring points. Finally, the 49ers have a positive home record vs the opponent (1-0), suggesting they have a historical advantage in this matchup. Given these points, a bet on the 49ers to cover a -7.5 spread
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : NA -7.5 Point Spread (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The San Francisco 49ers have been demonstrating strong performances recently, reflected in their positive point differential in their overall L5 games (+2.4 points). This compares favorably to the away team's negative point differential (-5.6 points). The 49ers have also shown a stronger offensive edge, with a higher EPA for (11.1) compared to the away team's (-3.2). This indicates that the 49ers are generating more expected points per play. The 49ers also demonstrate a higher explosive rate for (0.255) than the away team (0.210), showing they have more big-play ability. Furthermore, the 49ers' L5 home record (2-3) and the away team's L5 away record (3-2) suggests a very competitive match-up. However, considering the 49ers' recent victory against the same opponent (1-0 L5 record vs opponent), there is a statistical edge leaning towards the
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers : Over 49.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting 'Over' on the 49.5 total in this game is based on the recent scoring trends of both teams. Firstly, the home team has been scoring an average of 27.2 points per game and allowing 24.8 points in their last five games. This totals 52 points, which is higher than the line set at 49.5. The away team, on the other hand, has scored an average of 15 points and conceded 20.6 points in their last five, totaling 35.6 points. While the away team's total is below the line, their scoring has improved in away games, averaging 18.8 points. Moreover, the home team has been allowing more points in home games (26.6 points) compared to their overall last five games (24.8 points). This suggests a higher possibility of a high scoring game. Also, the home team's overall L5 pass EPA (Expected Points Added
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