Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical analysis strongly favors the Under 22.5 on Isaiah Likely's reception yards in the upcoming Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets game. Likely's recent performances show a clear trend towards underachieving this benchmark. Over his last five games, Likely has failed to surpass 22.5 reception yards, demonstrating a 0/5 hit rate. His performance at home is similarly underwhelming with an identical 0/5 hit rate. His long-term performance also supports this trend, with an overall hit rate of only 20/52 and a home hit rate of 10/28. While Likely has hit the mark in his previous meeting with the Jets, this single datapoint does not outweigh the consistent underperformance demonstrated in his broader history. With a model edge of 0.193885012751151 favoring the Under, it seems statistically prudent to bet on Likely falling short of 22.5 reception yards.
Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : Under 44.5 Total Points (-102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game seems to be a reasonable choice based on the statistics provided. Both teams have been scoring less than 44.5 points on average over their last five games, with the home team averaging 22.2 points and the away team averaging 19.4 points. Moreover, the away team's last five games have resulted in a negative point difference of -2.8, suggesting that they have been outscored by their opponents. Additionally, both teams have been struggling offensively, as indicated by their negative EPA (Expected Points Added) values. The home team's overall EPA for the last five games is -0.461, while the away team's is significantly lower at -1.951. This implies that both teams have been less efficient at producing points than expected, a trend that, if it continues, supports a bet for under 44.5 total points in this game. Lastly, both teams
Lamar Jackson (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Though Lamar Jackson is a dynamic player with undeniable talent, the betting data does not support a wager on him scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game against the New York Jets. Jackson's recent performance metrics indicate a lack of touchdowns, with a zero hit rate in his last 3, 5, and 10 games overall. His performance at home and against the Jets specifically also fail to inspire confidence, with no recent touchdowns to his name. His overall touchdown hit rate is 10/56, which equates to a success rate of just under 18%. The model edge of 0.1689, while positive, is not substantial enough to counterbalance the recent trends and past performances. Therefore, statistically speaking, betting on Jackson to score a touchdown in this game is a high risk proposition.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Get Bet Better Pro