Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Picks (Baker Mayfield Impact) : Smart Props & Lines

Betting on Mike Evans to score a touchdown anytime during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons game seems like a risky proposition. Over his recent performances, Evans has not been reliable when it comes to scoring. His overall hit rate in the last 5 games is 0/5, and he has failed to score a touchdown in his last 3 home games. However, Evans has shown a stronger performance against the Falcons. He has a hit rate of 2/3 in his last 3 games versus Atlanta and has scored in his last encounter with them. While his overall current hit streak is zero, his current hit streak vs Atlanta is one. Therefore, his record against Atlanta is a positive factor. However, his recent overall and home performances are concerning. The model edge of 0.0675 does not provide enough confidence to overcome these concerns. Therefore, it's a risk to bet on Evans to score anytime during this game.

Rachaad White (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

The statistical data for Rachaad White strongly supports the bet on Under 16.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. White's recent performance trend shows a consistent inability to surpass this target. The overall hit rate across his last 20 games is a mere 1/20, and his hit rate at home games is even lower at 0/20. Against the Falcons, White has only surpassed the target 2/6 times, dropping to 1/3 times when playing them at home. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a recent dip in form. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.0648 implies a slight advantage to this under bet. All these statistics paint a clear picture of White's recent struggle to accumulate significant rushing yards, making the Under 16.5 bet a statistically compelling choice.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

The statistics strongly suggest that Baker Mayfield will finish with under 15.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against the Atlanta Falcons. In all of his recent performances, Mayfield has consistently failed to exceed this threshold. He has an overall hit rate of 0 for his last 3, 5, and 10 games. Even factoring in his performance at home, his hit rate remains at 0 for the last three and five games, with a slightly better but still low 3/10 for his last 10 home games. Against Atlanta, his record is mixed, going 2/4 in the last four games, but he's only hit the mark once in his last two home games against them. His current hit streak for both overall and home games is 0. All these data points indicate that it's statistically likely for Mayfield to finish with under 15.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game.

Rachaad White (TB) Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The under 15.5 bet for Rachaad White in the 'player_rush_yds' market is a strong choice, supported by White's recent performance and overall hit rates. Looking at his overall history, White has been under this mark in 89% of his games (57 out of 64). His home record is even more significant, as he never exceeded 15.5 rushing yards in any of his last 20 home games. When facing the Atlanta Falcons, White's hit rate for under 15.5 stands at 67% (4 out of 6). His recent performance further bolsters this trend, with no games going over the set mark in his last 10 overall and last 5 home games. His current hit streaks in all categories are at 0, indicating a consistent underperformance. Therefore, the data-driven rationale suggests the under 15.5 bet to be a strong choice.

Bucky Irving (TB) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

The betting rationale for this player prop bet on Bucky Irving scoring a touchdown anytime during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons game is not particularly favorable. Irving's recent performance and trends indicate a low probability of him scoring. His overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, 10 and 20 games is 0/3, 0/5, 2/10 and 8/20 respectively, showing a downtrend. The statistics are no better when he plays at home, with hit rates of 0/3 and 1/5 in his last 3 and 5 games respectively. Against the Atlanta Falcons, Irving has never scored a touchdown in his last 2 encounters, neither overall nor at home. Furthermore, his current hit streak is 0 for all categories. Despite the model showing a slight edge of 0.047, Irving's recent performance and trends do not support a bet in his favor.