Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+220)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting on Zach Charbonnet to achieve over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market seems risky. Charbonnet's recent performance is not encouraging, with his overall and home hit rates in the last three and five games being 0. His current hit streak is also at 0, demonstrating a current lack of momentum. Looking at longer-term data, Charbonnet's performance is mixed. His overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 20% (2/10), and his home hit rate in the same period is 50% (5/10). His overall and home hit rates in the last 20 games are both 40% (8/20 and 8/18, respectively). Overall, Charbonnet has hit the over 39.47% of the time (15/38). While there's a model edge of 0.088, the recent trends and inconsistency in performance
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score a touchdown anytime during the Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans game appears to be a risky proposition. The player's recent performance does not inspire confidence, as his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games is significantly low (0/3, 0/5, 1/10 respectively). His current hit streak for scoring a touchdown is also at zero, both overall and at home. While his home hit rate is slightly more promising (4/10 in the last ten games and 8/20 in the last twenty), it still suggests a less than 50% chance of scoring. Furthermore, the model edge for this bet is only 0.0856, indicating that the statistical model doesn't see a significant advantage in making this bet. Therefore, from a statistical viewpoint, there are more reasons against than for making this bet.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the provided statistics, betting on Zach Charbonnet to score a touchdown at any time during the Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans game seems to be a risky proposition. Charbonnet's recent performance, specifically his hit rates, does not inspire confidence. Over the last 5 games, both overall and at home, he has failed to score a touchdown. He has only scored in 1 out of the last 5 home games and 2 out of the last 10 games overall. His overall hit rate is also low, with only 8 touchdowns in 38 games. In addition, he is currently on a zero hit streak both overall and at home. While the model suggests a small edge (8.56%), it does not outweigh the consistent trend of Charbonnet’s underperformance in scoring touchdowns.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Zach Charbonnet to score a touchdown at any time during the Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans game seems statistically unfavorable. Charbonnet's recent performance does not indicate a strong likelihood of scoring. His overall hit rate for scoring a touchdown is low, at 8 out of 38 games. Moreover, his performance has been on a downward trend recently, with no touchdowns scored in the last three games overall or at home. His overall hit rate has also been slipping: from 5/20 in the last 20 games to 2/10 in the last ten and 0/5 in the last five. Furthermore, his home hit rates have been consistently lower than his overall rates, which is concerning given that this game is at home. Hence, the statistical evidence suggests that it is unlikely for Charbonnet to score a touchdown in this game.
Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans : NA -3 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Seattle Seahawks are statistically favored in this matchup. Looking at the L5 performance data, the Seahawks have a strong home overall record of 4-1, outscoring their opponents on average by 10.6 points. This is substantially higher than the spread of -3, indicating a strong chance of covering the spread. Their home overall Expected Points Added (EPA) differential (12.62) is also significantly higher than the away team's EPA differential (12.47), suggesting a more efficient offensive and defensive performance. Moreover, they have significantly higher home overall L5 scores for (30.6) compared to the away team's overall L5 scores for (21.6). However, it's worth noting the Seahawks' relatively weaker home record of 1-4, suggesting they struggle more at home. Nonetheless, the model edge of 0.072 indicates a positive expected value for this bet, further supporting the rationale to bet on the Seahawks -3 in the spreads market
Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans : NA -3 Point Spread (-118)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Seattle Seahawks have shown strong recent performance, with an overall 4-1 record in their last 5 games, and outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points. In terms of the Expected Points Added (EPA) differential, the Seahawks have a significant advantage over their opponents, both in passing and rushing, indicating a more efficient offensive performance. The Seahawks also have a higher explosive rate, which measures the rate of plays gaining significant yardage, suggesting they're more likely to make big plays that can swing the momentum of the game. On the other hand, the away team's stats indicate weaker performance, especially in their EPA differential in both passing and rushing, and a lower explosive rate. Given these stats and the model's edge of 0.055, betting on the Seahawks -3 in the spreads market appears to be a statistically sound decision.
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