Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Over 53.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on over 53.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is based on the offensive performance of both teams in their last five games. The home team has averaged 35.6 points per game while the away team has averaged 28.4 points per game. This gives us a combined score of 64, which is well over the point total set in the market. Additionally, both teams have a positive point differential, indicating they typically score more than their opponents. Furthermore, both teams demonstrate strong offensive performance in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA). The home team's overall EPA for is 12.19 and the away team's is 3.83, suggesting they contribute significantly to their teams' scores. Also, both teams have shown explosive play rates above 0.21, potentially leading to high scoring games. Finally, the home and away team's recent records show they've both won 4 out of their last 5 games, indicating strong performance
David Montgomery (DET) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+158)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for David Montgomery to go over 14.5 reception yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is supported by his performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Montgomery has a perfect hit rate against Tampa Bay in all his last 2, 5, 10, and 20 games, both overall and at home. His record against Tampa Bay at home is another positive indicator, with a perfect hit rate across his last 1, 3, 5, 10, and 20 games. His overall hit rate is 23/54, which is not impressive, but his hit rate when playing at home is better at 11/28. Although his overall current hit streak is low, his hit streak against Tampa Bay is strong. Despite a recent dip in form, his successful track record against Tampa Bay suggests there is a reasonable chance he could exceed 14.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.
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