David Montgomery (DET) Under 1.5 Receptions (-141)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 1.5 'player receptions' bet for David Montgomery in the Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game is a worthy consideration. Montgomery's hit rate for under 1.5 receptions against Tampa Bay is 50% overall, and he has never hit over 1.5 receptions in a home game against them. Additionally, his overall current hit streak is at 0, indicating a recent decrease in his reception rate. Although his home hit streak is at 3, it's important to note that these stats apply to all home games, not specifically against Tampa Bay. Considering his performance specifically against Tampa Bay, and his latest reception trends, the data suggests that placing a bet for under 1.5 receptions for David Montgomery in this game could be statistically sound.
Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers : NA -6 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Detroit Lions have a clear statistical edge that justifies a bet on them to cover a -6 spread. Looking at their last five overall performances, the Lions have outperformed their opponents by a significant margin: they score an average of 35.6 points per game while allowing just 23. Their overall point differential is 12.6, which is more than enough to cover the -6 spread. The Lions also have a positive expected points added (EPA) differential of 15.44, indicating they typically generate more scoring opportunities than their opponents. In contrast, the opposing team's overall EPA differential is just 1.77, and their point differential is a mere 2.2. Additionally, the Lions have a strong turnover differential of 1.4 in their favor, suggesting they are better at both protecting the ball and forcing turnovers. Their home record of 4-1 and 3-2 also speaks to their consistent performance. Overall, the Lions'
Jameson Williams (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data presents a cautious outlook on Jameson Williams scoring a touchdown anytime during the Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. His overall hit rate is 11 in 43 attempts, which equates to a success rate of only 25.6%. More recently, his performance has been poorer, with zero touchdowns in his last three games overall and at home. Furthermore, Williams has a current hit streak of zero, indicating he hasn't scored in recent games. Even when specifically playing against Tampa Bay, his hit rate is 50%, and he has never scored a touchdown at home against them. The model edge of 0.131937125231973 suggests some potential for success, but it's important to weigh this against his recent and overall performance. Therefore, although there is some potential for a touchdown, the bet carries a fair amount of risk given Williams' recent and overall statistics.
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