David Montgomery (DET) Under 1.5 Receptions (-141)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 1.5 'player receptions' bet for David Montgomery in the Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game is a worthy consideration. Montgomery's hit rate for under 1.5 receptions against Tampa Bay is 50% overall, and he has never hit over 1.5 receptions in a home game against them. Additionally, his overall current hit streak is at 0, indicating a recent decrease in his reception rate. Although his home hit streak is at 3, it's important to note that these stats apply to all home games, not specifically against Tampa Bay. Considering his performance specifically against Tampa Bay, and his latest reception trends, the data suggests that placing a bet for under 1.5 receptions for David Montgomery in this game could be statistically sound.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA) Under 1.5 Receptions (-149)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Zach Charbonnet for Under 1.5 in the 'player receptions' market for the Seahawks vs Texans game is statistically supported. First, Charbonnet's overall hit rate for this outcome over the last 20 games is 45% (9/20), indicating a trend towards lower reception numbers. This trend is even more pronounced at home games, with a hit rate of 44.4% (8/18). Furthermore, Charbonnet's recent performance also supports this bet. His hit rate for the under 1.5 receptions outcome over his last 5 games is 80% (4/5), and it's the same for home games. This indicates a strong recent trend towards fewer receptions. Finally, Charbonnet is currently on a hit streak of 2 games, both overall and at home, for this outcome. Considering these factors, the data suggests that Charbonnet is likely to have under 1.5 receptions in the
Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Under 1.5 Receptions (-167)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Analyzing Kenneth Walker III's recent performance shows a clear trend towards the under 1.5 receptions. Walker III isn't a primary target in the Seahawks' passing game, especially with other key receivers taking up the majority of targets. His recent stats confirm this trend with an average receptions below the 1.5 mark in his last five games. Furthermore, the Seahawks' offensive strategy is more run-oriented, which reduces the number of passing opportunities for Walker III. The model edge of 0.121194094446032 also leans towards the under, indicating that the probability of Walker III getting under 1.5 catches is statistically higher. Combining these factors, it's logical to bet on Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market for Kenneth Walker III in the Seattle Seahawks vs Houston Texans game.
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