Jalen Nailor (MIN) Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jalen Nailor for Under 19.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is statistically justified due to his recent slump in performance. In his last 10 games overall, Nailor hit the Under 19.5 yards mark 10 times, indicating a hit rate of 100% for this specific outcome. His performance at home is also supportive of this bet, as he's hit the Under 19.5 yards mark 7 out of the last 10 home games. The trend continues to hold when expanding the sample size to the last 20 games. Here, Nailor hit the Under 19.5 yards mark 12 times overall and 7 times at home. Moreover, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is 0, meaning he hasn't exceeded 19.5 yards in his most recent outings. Given these hit rates and the current model edge of 0.181, this bet seems statistically solid. Betting the
Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA Moneyline (+185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Minnesota Vikings in the 'h2h' market is backed by several key statistics. Firstly, the Vikings have a model edge of 0.169122807017544, indicating a statistical advantage. Comparing home and away stats, both teams have a similar point differential of -5.8 across their last five games. However, the Vikings have demonstrated better performance on the road with a point differential of 6.2, compared to the home team's 7.2. This is further supported by the Vikings' superior EPA differential of 9.51425402645775 over the home team's 6.02344358250459. This suggests they are more effective in controlling the ball and moving it downfield. Despite both teams having an overall 2-3 record in their last five games, the Vikings show a better explosive rate for (0.246105051360796 vs 0.227192043760294) which indicates a higher potential for big
Jordan Addison (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jordan Addison to score a touchdown at any time during the Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens game seems to be a risky proposition given the provided statistics. Addison has struggled recently, failing to score in his last three games overall, and in his last five games at home. His hit rates over larger samples don't inspire much confidence either. His overall hit rate is 15/38, less than 50%, and his home hit rate is even lower at 6/16. Additionally, he is currently on a scoring drought both at home and overall. The model edge of 0.157 might seem tempting, but considering Addison's recent performance and overall trends, it might be a risky bet. It would be advisable to consider these factors and approach this bet with caution.
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