Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills : NA -8.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Buffalo Bills present a compelling case for a bet in the 'spreads' market with a -8.5 point spread. The statistical data underlines the Bills' dominant performance in their recent matches. Over their last five games, the Bills have an overall score of 26.6 against 19.2, a point difference of 7.4, significantly higher than the home team's -5.6. The Bills also have a solid EPA (Expected Points Added) difference of 8.57 compared to the home team's -6.04. The Bills' positive turnover differential also indicates their ability to control the game and minimize mistakes. Moreover, the Bills' historical record against the home team is impressive, winning all five of their last matchups. The model edge of 0.19 further suggests that the Bills are likely to cover the -8.5 point spread.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 24.5 Player rush yds alternate (+1760)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistically, a bet on Tua Tagovailoa to rush for over 24.5 yards against the Buffalo Bills is highly risky. Tagovailoa's recent performance data shows an overall hit rate of 1 out of 51 attempts, indicating a less than 2% success rate. His home hit rate is even lower, standing at zero successful outcomes in 26 attempts. More specifically, against the Buffalo Bills, his hit rate is zero in all six past encounters. Tagovailoa's hit rate when playing against Buffalo at home also stands at zero, showing a consistent pattern of underperformance in this particular market. Furthermore, his hit streak is currently at zero across all categories, suggesting a lack of momentum. While the model edge of 0.177849065641523 shows some positive expectation, the overwhelmingly negative historical data suggests a high degree of risk.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
While Tua Tagovailoa's overall and home rushing performance has been poor recently, with hit rates of 0/10 and 3/10 respectively, his performance against the Buffalo Bills paints a different picture. In the last five games against the Bills, Tua has consistently hit over 2.5 yards, giving him a perfect hit rate of 5/5. This positive trend extends to his overall performance against the Bills, with a strong hit rate of 5/6. His statistics at home against the Bills are not as strong, with a hit rate of 2/3, but still suggest a higher likelihood of hitting the over 2.5 yards. Despite his recent overall and home struggles, Tua's consistent success against the Bills suggests a good chance of exceeding 2.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game. Thus, betting on the over in the 'player_rush_yds' market could prove successful.
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