Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : Under 42.5 Total Points (+116)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Under 42.5 in the 'totals' market for the game is mainly driven by the performance of the away team. The away team's average score in the last 5 games is 20.2, while they have conceded an average of 23.8 points. Particularly when playing away, their scoring average drops to 15.8, and they concede 22 points on average. These figures suggest a potential total score of less than 42.5. Furthermore, their expected points added (EPA) figures also indicate less scoring. Their overall EPA for the last 5 games stands at 0.40, while their EPA against is 5.24, showing a better defensive than offensive performance. This trend is even more pronounced when playing away, with an EPA for of -5.22 and an EPA against of -0.16. Given these figures, it seems statistically reasonable to bet on a total score of less than 42.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +3.5 Point Spread (-135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Indianapolis Colts are a strong bet in the spread market, given their performance in recent games. The Colts have a 4-1 record in their last five overall games and a perfect 5-0 in their last five home games. Their home advantage is reflected in several key areas, notably the points differential: 17.6 at home against 13.8 overall, suggesting that they play significantly better at home. Additionally, the Colts' expected points added (EPA) differential at home is 19.48, indicating they are efficient at both ends of the field. The Colts also have a strong explosive rate, showing their ability to create big plays that can shift the momentum of a game. Conversely, the opposing team has a negative points differential both overall and away, indicating they struggle to outscore their opponents, especially on the road. Their EPA statistics also suggest they are less efficient offensively and defensively. Therefore, the statistical data supports a bet on the Colts
Josh Downs (IND) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+120)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically, Josh Downs' recent performance does not favor this bet. He has not hit this mark in his last 5 games overall or at home. This is also reflected in his hit streaks, which are both at 0. However, it's notable that his overall hit rate is above 75% (30/39), and his home hit rate is just over 70% (15/21). This suggests that despite his recent poor form, he's typically been reliable in surpassing 9.5 reception yards. Additionally, in his single game against the Falcons, he did surpass this mark, which may indicate matchup-specific advantages. However, the model edge is only 0.03, suggesting the model only slightly favours this outcome. Therefore, while his overall and home hit rates provide some optimism, his recent form makes this bet a risky proposition.
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