Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : NA +3.5 Point Spread (-135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Indianapolis Colts are a strong bet in the spread market, given their performance in recent games. The Colts have a 4-1 record in their last five overall games and a perfect 5-0 in their last five home games. Their home advantage is reflected in several key areas, notably the points differential: 17.6 at home against 13.8 overall, suggesting that they play significantly better at home. Additionally, the Colts' expected points added (EPA) differential at home is 19.48, indicating they are efficient at both ends of the field. The Colts also have a strong explosive rate, showing their ability to create big plays that can shift the momentum of a game. Conversely, the opposing team has a negative points differential both overall and away, indicating they struggle to outscore their opponents, especially on the road. Their EPA statistics also suggest they are less efficient offensively and defensively. Therefore, the statistical data supports a bet on the Colts
Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons : Under 42.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 42.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game is mainly driven by the recent defensive performances of both teams. The home team has a strong defensive record, only allowing an average of 19.6 points in their last five games, and even less at home (16.6 points). Furthermore, their Expected Points Added (EPA) against is negative, indicating they are preventing their opponents from scoring effectively. The away team also has a good defensive performance, only allowing 23.8 points per game overall and 22 points in away games. Their EPA against is positive but still relatively low, showing their defense is competent. Moreover, the away team's offensive performance is not strong, with an average of 20.2 points scored in their last five games and a lower 15.8 points in away games. This suggests they may struggle to contribute significantly to the total score. These factors combined provide a compelling rationale for an under 42.5 bet
Josh Downs (IND) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+120)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Statistically, Josh Downs' recent performance does not favor this bet. He has not hit this mark in his last 5 games overall or at home. This is also reflected in his hit streaks, which are both at 0. However, it's notable that his overall hit rate is above 75% (30/39), and his home hit rate is just over 70% (15/21). This suggests that despite his recent poor form, he's typically been reliable in surpassing 9.5 reception yards. Additionally, in his single game against the Falcons, he did surpass this mark, which may indicate matchup-specific advantages. However, the model edge is only 0.03, suggesting the model only slightly favours this outcome. Therefore, while his overall and home hit rates provide some optimism, his recent form makes this bet a risky proposition.
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