Davis Mills (HOU) Over 14.5 Player rush yds alternate (+203)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data for Davis Mills does not support a confident bet on Over 14.5 rushing yards for this game. His recent performance and trends show a consistent inability to reach this mark. He has not hit this outcome in his last five games overall and at home, as indicated by his 0/5 hit rates in both categories. His overall current hit streak is 0, showing no recent success in achieving this outcome. His hit rate over the last 20 games is only 2/20 overall and 3/14 at home, demonstrating that he struggles to attain more than 14.5 rushing yards in most games. The model edge of 0.11 also suggests that there is only a slight statistical advantage for this bet. Based on these stats, the bet on Davis Mills for Over 14.5 rushing yards lacks strong statistical support.
Nico Collins (HOU) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Nico Collins to score a touchdown anytime in the game between Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills might not seem like an obvious choice at first glance. His recent overall performance has been underwhelming, with no touchdowns in his last 5 games both overall and at home. His overall hit rate is only 30% (15/50), which isn't impressive. However, when you specifically look at his performance against the Buffalo Bills, the data tells a different story. He has scored a touchdown in all his games against the Bills, regardless of location. This includes a 100% hit rate at home (1/1). This suggests that Collins performs significantly better against the Bills compared to other teams. Therefore, despite his recent form, the statistical data indicates that Collins has a higher probability of scoring a touchdown in this specific matchup.
Davis Mills (HOU) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data for Davis Mills suggests caution when considering an Over bet of 8.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills. Mills has a poor recent performance with an overall hit rate of 0/3 in his last 3 games, showing a lack of ability to consistently reach this yardage mark. Furthermore, his overall hit rate is 6/28 and at home, it's 5/14, so his performances do not significantly improve at home either. Moreover, he's currently on a zero-game hit streak, indicating a lack of momentum. The model edge at just over 6% also doesn't provide much confidence for this bet. Therefore, the stats suggest that Mills is unlikely to surpass 8.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game, making the Over bet a risky proposition.
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