Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA Moneyline (+130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the head-to-head market is supported by several key statistical trends. The Steelers have a strong recent home record, with 4 wins in their last 5 games, compared to the away team's 2-3 record in their last 5 games. Additionally, the Steelers have a positive point differential in their last 5 home games, scoring on average 5.4 more points per game than they conceded. The Steelers also have an edge in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each play to the team's scoring margin. They have an overall EPA difference of 3.53 in their last 5 games, indicating they are more effective in both offensive and defensive plays than the away team, who has a mere 0.16 EPA difference. Lastly, the Steelers have a positive turnover differential, averaging 1.6 more turnovers won than lost in their last 5 home games, suggesting they are better than
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Under 44.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Under 44.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is supported by key metrics from recent performances of both teams. The home team's last five games have seen an average of 26.4 points scored for and 24.6 against, which totals 51, however, in their home games, they scored less (21.6) and conceded less (16.2), which totals 37.8 - well under the 44.5 line. The away team's last five games have seen an average of 25.4 points for and 25 against, which totals 50.4, but their away games have seen them score 22 and concede 26.4, totaling 48.4 - closer to the line, but still under. The home team's strong last five overall record (4-1), compared to the away team's weaker record (2-3), suggests the home team's lower-scoring trend may continue.
D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data for D'Andre Swift in the 'player_anytime_td' market suggests a cautious approach to betting on him scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Swift's recent performance has been lackluster, failing to score in his last five games overall and at home. His overall hit rate in his last 20 games is only 15% (3/20), and slightly better at home with 30% (6/20). However, his overall hit rate is 33% (19/57) suggesting he has the potential to score. Despite the low hit rates, the model predicts a minor edge (0.076) in favor of Swift scoring. Therefore, while his recent performance doesn't inspire confidence, the model's edge and Swift's overall scoring ability make this a riskier, but potentially rewarding bet.
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