Cole Kmet (CHI) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Cole Kmet to finish under 16.5 receiving yards appears to be a statistically sound decision based on his recent performances and historical hit rates. Looking at Kmet's overall hit rate, he has gone under 16.5 receiving yards in 44 of his 56 games, which translates to a hit rate of roughly 79%. In his last 20 games, he has gone under this mark 15 times (75% hit rate), and in his last 10 games, he has gone under 9 times (90% hit rate). Recently, Kmet has struggled even more, not surpassing 16.5 receiving yards in his last 5 games. The model also provides a significant edge of 9.72%, which further suggests that the under is a good bet. Given these trends, it's more likely Kmet would remain below 16.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Cole Kmet (CHI) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests a strong rationale for betting on Cole Kmet to have under 15.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kmet's recent performance and hit rates indicate a trend of low receiving yards. Across his last five games, Kmet has not exceeded 15.5 receiving yards, as indicated by the overall and home hit rates of 0/5 and 1/5 respectively. This trend extends further, with Kmet only exceeding 15.5 yards in one of his last ten games (overall hit rate of 1/10). Kmet's overall hit rate is also low, with him only surpassing 15.5 yards in 11 of his 56 games. The model provides a further prediction edge of 0.0699 for the under. Given these stats, a bet on Kmet to stay under 15.5 receiving yards seems justified.
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -3 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Chicago Bears -3 in the 'spreads' market is supported by several key data points. First, the Bears have a strong home record recently, going 4-1 overall in their last five games and 3-2 at home. This indicates good performance and consistency. Secondly, their overall performance data, such as the home overall last five games score for (26.4) against score against (24.6), shows that they are outscoring their opponents by an average of 1.8 points. In addition, the Bears have a positive turnover differential, indicating that they are able to capitalize on their opponents' mistakes. Their explosive rate for is also higher than the explosive rate against, suggesting they can execute big plays more often than their opponents. On the other hand, their opponents have been struggling, especially in away games, with a 2-3 record and negative point differential. They also allow more yards and have a worse turnover differential.
D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the presented data, betting on D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers might not be a wise choice. Swift's overall hit rate over the last 3, 5, and 10 games has been poor, with no touchdowns in the last 5 games, and only 1 in his last 10 games. His current hit streak is also at zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Although his home hit rate is slightly better, with 2 touchdowns in the last 10 home games and 6 in the last 20, these numbers are still not particularly promising. The model edge of just 0.037 suggests a very small statistical advantage, further underscoring the riskiness of this bet. Therefore, the data suggests it is less likely that D'Andre Swift will score a touchdown in this game.
Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -3 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Chicago Bears have been performing well statistically in recent games, particularly when playing at home, which makes them a strong bet in the spread market. The Bears have an overall record of 4-1 in their last five games, including 3-2 at home. This is a superior record compared to their opponents, who have a 2-3 record both overall and away. The Bears also have an advantageous EPA (Expected Points Added) differential, outperforming their opponents in both passing and rushing EPA. They also have a better turnover differential than their opponents, which indicates they have been more successful at retaining possession. Furthermore, the Bears have scored more and conceded fewer points per game than their opponents over the last five games. They have an average point difference of +1.8 overall and +5.4 at home, while their opponents have a smaller point difference of +0.4 overall and -4.4 away. Given these statistics, the Chicago Bears -3
D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown at any time during the Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers game might not be a wise decision, given his recent performance and hit rates. Swift's recent performance shows a lack of scoring consistency, with no touchdowns in his last 5 games overall and at home. His overall hit rate over the past 10 games is only 10%, and his home hit rate is 20%, both of which are fairly low. Looking at an extended record, he has scored a touchdown in only 19 of his 57 overall games, and 12 of his 29 home games. The model edge of 0.0260838981474791 also suggests a very slim margin. Given these stats, a bet on Swift making a touchdown seems to be against the odds. It's important to consider these statistics and trends when formulating a betting strategy.
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