Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets Prediction & Picks (Zay Flowers Impact) : Full Breakdown

Based on the provided data, betting on Derrick Henry for Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is not strongly recommended. This conclusion is drawn from his recent performance and hit rate trends. Henry's overall hit rate for the last 20 games is 20%, with a slightly higher home hit rate of 30%. This suggests that Henry does not consistently surpass the 14.5 yards threshold. Furthermore, his hit rate for the last 5 and 10 games is 0%, indicating a recent performance drop. This is further emphasized by his current hit streak of 0, both overall and at home. The model edge of 0.094 suggests a small advantage in this bet, but given Henry's recent performance and hit rate trends, the risk seems to outweigh the potential reward. Therefore, the statistics do not offer strong support for this bet.

Mark Andrews (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

The betting rationale for Mark Andrews to score a touchdown anytime in the game against the New York Jets is not particularly strong, based on his recent performance and trends. In his last 5 games overall, as well as at home, he has not scored a touchdown, and he has failed to do so in his last encounter with the Jets. The overall hit rate of 18/56 is relatively low, indicating that he scores a touchdown in less than a third of his games. His hit rate at home, 8/28, is even less promising. Furthermore, his current hit streak in all categories is 0. While there is a model edge of about 0.086 in favor of Andrews scoring, considering his recent performance and historical hit rates, it might not be a particularly safe bet.

Zay Flowers (BAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)

Statistically, the odds of Zay Flowers scoring a touchdown anytime during the Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets game seem quite low. Looking at recent performance data, Flowers hasn't scored in his last five games overall and hasn't scored in his last five home games either. His hit rate over the last 20 games is just 10% overall and 20% for home games. Additionally, Flowers is currently on a zero-hit streak, both overall and at home. However, the betting model indicates a slight edge of about 8.56% for this particular bet. This suggests that despite Flowers' recent lackluster performance, there may be factors, such as the Jets' defensive weaknesses or potential changes in the Ravens' offensive strategy, that could increase his chances of scoring. Remember, betting isn't just about past performance, but also about future potential, which in this case, the model seems to see in Flowers.

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : NA +13.5 Point Spread (-105)

The New York Jets have a 13.5 outcome point spread in their favour, which is substantial in NFL terms. This implies the model is expecting them to keep the game relatively close, despite their recent performance indicators. The Jets have been outscored by an average of 2.8 points in their last five games and have a negative EPA (Expected Points Added) differential, suggesting they've been less efficient than their opponents. However, they have a lower turnover rate than their opponents, which may help them maintain possession and control the pace of the game. The home team, on the other hand, has been outscored by an average of 3.6 points in their last five home games and has a negative home EPA differential, indicating they've struggled to sustain drives and score points at home. The betting rationale here is that despite their struggles, the Jets should be able to keep the game within a two-touchdown margin based on turnover dynamics and the home team's recent

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets : NA +13.5 Point Spread (-105)

The New York Jets have a 13.5 point advantage in this betting market, which appears to be a solid choice based on the provided data. Despite their overall score being lower than the home team (19.4 vs. 22.2), their score against is also lower (22.2 vs. 26.4), suggesting they have a more robust defense. The Jets also turn the ball over less frequently, with an average of 0.8 turnovers compared to the home team's 1.4. However, it is pertinent to note that the Jets have a negative point differential in their last five games (-2.8), but this is less than the home team's differential (-3.6). Additionally, the Jets have a lower explosive play rate against them (0.212 vs 0.226), implying their defense is more effective at preventing big plays. Considering these statistics, the Jets seem to be a sound bet to cover the 13.5 point