Rome Odunze (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the statistics, Rome Odunze has a poor record of scoring touchdowns. His overall hit rate is just 2/29, and he hasn't had a successful touchdown in his last 10 games. In games specifically against the Green Bay Packers, he has a hit rate of 0/2, and at home games, his hit rate is 0/14. These stats suggest a low probability of Odunze scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game. However, the model edge of 0.189626147367885 implies that the betting market might be undervaluing Odunze's chances of scoring a touchdown. This discrepancy between the model and the market could be due to other factors such as recent team performance, player health, or changes in team strategy. Therefore, while the bet seems risky due to Odunze's past performance, the model suggests there may be value in this bet. In conclusion, this bet should be approached with caution, considering Od
Caleb Williams (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided betting data, it's difficult to support a bet on Caleb Williams to score a touchdown at any point in the game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. The statistics show a consistent lack of scoring from Williams, both overall and specifically against the Packers. He has a hit rate of zero across the board in his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, meaning he hasn't scored a touchdown in any of these games. This includes games played at home, away, and specifically against the Green Bay Packers. His current hit streak is also zero, indicating that he hasn't scored in recent games. Therefore, despite the model's edge of 0.188816955665791, the player's recent performance and trends do not support a bet on Williams to score a touchdown at any point in the game.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA +1.5 Point Spread (-118)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the Chicago Bears with a 1.5 spread seems reasonable given the data provided. The Bears have a higher overall score (25.6 vs 19.4), a positive point differential (+4 vs -7.4), and a stronger Expected Points Added (EPA) differential (4.32 vs -8.94) compared to the away team, in the last five games. This suggests an overall stronger offensive and defensive performance. Moreover, the Bears have a better turnover differential (+1 vs -0.6) and a stronger home record (4-1 vs 2-3) which indicates they perform well under home conditions. The Bears also have a superior home EPA differential (6.27 vs -1.34), suggesting they are more effective at both creating and preventing scoring opportunities when playing at home. Despite a slightly adverse head-to-head record (2-3), the overall and home-specific performances make the Bears a good bet with a 1
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