Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles : NA +7 Point Spread (-104)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Washington Commanders +7 in the 'spreads' market is supported by a confluence of statistical evidence. Firstly, the away team (Washington Commanders) has an overall better record against the opposition, with a 4-1 win-loss ratio in the last 5 games, compared to the home team's 1-4. Secondly, the Commanders have a positive point differential in their most recent five games (+4.6) compared to the home team's negative differential (-9.8). This suggests the Commanders are performing more consistently. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA)—a measure of the contribution of each play to the score difference—the Commanders also fare better with a positive overall EPA difference (+6.18), while the home team has a notably negative EPA difference (-12.02). Lastly, the Commanders have a positive turnover difference in their last five games (+0.2), indicating their ability to maintain possession more effectively than the home
Jeremy McNichols (WAS) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+113)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided statistical data, it would be a risky bet to back Jeremy McNichols to run over 9.5 yards in the 'player_rush_yds_alternate' market for the Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles game. McNichols' recent performance does not inspire confidence. His overall hit rate is notably low, with only 6 successful outcomes from 29 overall attempts, a success rate of around 20.7%. Furthermore, he's been particularly ineffective at home, with a hit rate of 4/14, and against Philadelphia, where he's 0/2. McNichols has not hit over the set yardage in his last 10 overall attempts, his last 5 home attempts, or his last two attempts against Philadelphia. His current hit streak is zero in all categories, indicating a current lack of form. Thus, the statistical data suggests it's unlikely McNichols will exceed 9.5 rushing yards in this game.
Jeremy McNichols (WAS) Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data does not favor a bet on Jeremy McNichols to achieve over 8.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles. McNichols' recent performance metrics and hit rates present a clear trend of underperformance. His overall hit rate is 7/29, and in home games, it's 4/14. When playing against Philadelphia, his hit rate is 0/2 overall, and 0/1 at home. Furthermore, he has not hit above this mark in his last 10 overall games (0/10), home games (2/10), or against Philadelphia (0/2). His current streak in all these categories is zero. While past performance does not guarantee future results, these trends suggest a low probability of McNichols exceeding 8.5 rushing yards in the upcoming game.
Jeremy McNichols (WAS) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+178)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting statistics for Jeremy McNichols do not inspire confidence for a bet on Over 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market. McNichols has failed to hit this mark in his last 10 games overall, and his last 5 games at home. His overall hit rate (1/29) is also poor, indicating this is a trend rather than a temporary slump. However, the one silver lining is McNichols' performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. He has achieved this outcome in 50% of his encounters with the Eagles and has hit this mark in his only home game against them. Despite this, the overall trend, combined with the low model edge of 0.0639, suggests that this bet is risky. Therefore, it is advisable to exercise caution before placing a bet on Over 14.5 for Jeremy McNichols in this game.
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles : Under 44.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on 'Under 44.5' in the 'totals' market for this game is rooted in a combination of both teams' recent scoring trends and defensive effectiveness. Over their last five games, the home team has averaged just 18 points scored while giving up 27.8 points. The away team has scored 20.4 points per game while allowing 15.8 points. Projecting from these figures, we can expect the total combined score of both teams to be less than 44.5 points. Moreover, both teams have been struggling offensively, as seen in their negative Expected Points Added (EPA) values over their last five games. The home team has a -0.35 EPA for and 11.66 EPA against, indicating they are losing potential scoring opportunities and allowing opponents to capitalize. The away team also has a negative EPA for of -2.36, indicating offensive struggles. In summary, considering both teams' subpar offensive performance and effective
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles : Under 44.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The rationale for the "Under 44.5" bet in the 'totals' market is primarily based on the performance history of both teams. For the home team, their overall performance in the last five games shows a low score for (18) and a negative point difference (-9.8). The home team also has a negative EPA (expected points added) difference (-12.01), indicating they are not adding much to their overall score. Similarly, the away team, despite having a positive point difference, has a low score for (20.4), and their EPA for is also negative (-2.36). This suggests that they are not contributing significantly to the total points either. The home team has a poor record (1-4) overall, at home and against the opponent in the last five games. The away team also has a less than stellar overall and home record (2-3) in the last five games. These statistics further support the likelihood of a low
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