Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+205)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the available data, the rationale for betting on Jaylen Waddle for 'Yes' in the 'player_anytime_td' market is not strongly supported. Waddle's recent performance and trends do not indicate a high probability of him scoring a touchdown. He has not scored in any of his last 5 or 10 games overall, at home, or against the Cincinnati Bengals. His overall hit rate is 12 out of 62, which is a success rate of only 19.35%. Even at home, where his performance is slightly better, his hit rate is 7 out of 29, or 24.14%. Against the Bengals, his hit rate is 0 out of 1. Furthermore, he is currently on a streak of not scoring. Although the model edge is 0.1744, the player's individual performance data suggests that a successful outcome for this bet is uncertain.
Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals : NA Moneyline (+170)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet favors the Miami Dolphins in the head-to-head (h2h) market, primarily due to their superior recent performance. Over their last five games overall, the Dolphins have an average point differential of +7, compared to the opposing team's -7.8. This is backed up by the Expected Points Added (EPA) stats, where the Dolphins also outperform, particularly in passing and rushing. Furthermore, the Dolphins' overall record in their recent five games is 4-1, compared to the opposing team's 1-4, which suggests a stronger momentum for the Dolphins. The Dolphins have also shown better control of the ball with lower turnovers in their last five games. The only drawback is their recent head-to-head record where they are 0-1, but considering their overall recent form, the bet on the Dolphins seems rational.
Malik Washington (MIA) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Malik Washington to go under 16.5 reception yards is primarily based on his recent performance and hit rates. Over his last five games, both overall and at home, Washington has not hit the over on this prop even once. The trend extends further back, with a 0/10 hit rate in his last 10 games overall and a modest 2/10 success rate at home. His overall hit rate is also weak, with only 7 successes in 26 attempts. His current hit streak is zero, signifying a trend of underperformance. These statistics point to a consistent inability to exceed the reception yards threshold set for this prop. Additionally, the model predicts a slight edge (8.8%) in favor of the under outcome. Given these data points, it seems statistically reasonable to bet on Washington going under 16.5 reception yards.
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