Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Monday 12/22 (Xavier Legette Focus)

The statistical data strongly supports betting on the "Under 21.5" outcome for Xavier Legette in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. Legette's recent performance shows a consistent inability to surpass the 21.5 yards threshold. This is evident in his overall hit rate, which is a mere 3/27. His performance at home is not better, with a hit rate of just 1/12. Moreover, when playing against Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his performance further declines, with a hit rate of 0/2 overall and 0/1 at home. His current hit streaks across all categories are at zero, indicating a lack of recent success in surpassing the reception yard threshold. This consistent underperformance in recent games, especially against the Buccaneers, suggests a high probability that Legette will not exceed 21.5 reception yards in the upcoming game.

Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-152)

The bet on Cedric Tillman for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market is justified by several key stats. Firstly, Tillman has shown consistency in staying under this mark, with an overall hit rate of 13/29 and a home hit rate of 8/17. He's also on a strong current streak, hitting under 1.5 receptions in his last three games overall and his last two home games. His performance becomes even more compelling when looking at his recent games, in which he stayed under 1.5 receptions 3 out of his last 5 games overall, and 2 out of his last 5 home games. Given these trends, Tillman's likelihood of receiving under 1.5 passes in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills is statistically significant, supporting the suggestion to place this under bet.

Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-154)

Betting on Cedric Tillman for under 1.5 receptions in the Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills game would be based on his recent and overall performance data. Tillman has been consistently underperforming in the 'player_receptions' market, with a lower than expected hit rate. In the last 3 games, he has hit the under 3 times, while at home he has hit the under 2 out of 3 times. Additionally, over his last 5 games, he has only hit the market over 3 times and at home, only twice. His overall hit rate is roughly 45% (13/29) and at home, it is slightly lower at 47% (8/17). His current hit streak for the under is also significant, with 3 overall and 2 at home. This data indicates Tillman is more likely to have fewer than 1.5 receptions in the upcoming game, suggesting the 'under' bet has a solid

Malik Washington (MIA) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Betting on Malik Washington to go under 17.5 receiving yards is a statistically sound choice. Over his last 20 games, Washington has only surpassed this mark twice, giving him an overall hit rate of just 10%. This trend holds when we narrow our focus to his last 10 games, where he hasn't exceeded this total at all. His hit rate for home games follows a similar pattern, with a 33% success rate over his last 12 home games, and a 20% success rate in his last 10. Washington's recent form is even less encouraging, as he has failed to exceed the 17.5 yard mark in his last 3 games, both overall and at home. These statistics suggest that Washington is unlikely to accumulate more than 17.5 receiving yards in the upcoming game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Malik Washington (MIA) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

The betting rationale for Malik Washington to go under 16.5 reception yards is primarily based on his recent performance and hit rates. Over his last five games, both overall and at home, Washington has not hit the over on this prop even once. The trend extends further back, with a 0/10 hit rate in his last 10 games overall and a modest 2/10 success rate at home. His overall hit rate is also weak, with only 7 successes in 26 attempts. His current hit streak is zero, signifying a trend of underperformance. These statistics point to a consistent inability to exceed the reception yards threshold set for this prop. Additionally, the model predicts a slight edge (8.8%) in favor of the under outcome. Given these data points, it seems statistically reasonable to bet on Washington going under 16.5 reception yards.