Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Thursday 01/01 (Cade Otton Focus)

The statistical data suggests a strong rationale for betting on Cade Otton to stay under 18.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers. The main reason for this is Otton's recent performance, which has been below par. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 0/20, showing a consistent inability to cross the 18.5 reception yards mark. His performance at home is slightly better but still quite low, with a hit rate of 6/20 in the last 20 home games. When playing against the Panthers, his performance has been marginally better, with a hit rate of 1/4. His record against the Panthers at home is perfect, but it's based on just one game, which is not a substantial sample size. Therefore, the under 18.5 bet for Cade Otton's reception yards seems statistically valid.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The statistical data significantly supports a bet on Bucky Irving to come in under 17.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Irving's overall hit rate is approximately 37% (10/27), which isn’t impressive. However, the more recent figures are especially concerning. For instance, his overall hit rate over the last 20 games is just 25% (5/20), and it's worse for his last 10 games with 0 hits. Focusing on his performance against the Panthers, he hasn't managed to hit this marker in any of their recent encounters, with a hit rate of 0/2 overall and 0/2 at home. His current hit streak in all categories is also at zero, suggesting a concerning lack of form. Therefore, based on these figures, betting the under on Bucky Irving’s reception yards seems a reasonable proposition.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Based on the provided statistical data, betting on Bucky Irving for Under 17.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market seems like a viable option. Irving's recent performance has been underwhelming, as evidenced by his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, which stands at 0/3, 0/5, 0/10, and 5/20 respectively. This shows a consistent inability to reach the threshold of 17.5 reception yards. Moreover, even in home games, his performance hasn't improved significantly, with a hit rate of 3/10 in the last 10 games and 6/15 in the last 20. When facing the Carolina Panthers, his hit rate is even worse, with zero success in the last 2 and 5 games, whether at home or away. This pattern of underperformance, along with a current hit streak of zero, justifies a bet

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The bet for Baker Mayfield to finish under 16.5 rushing yards in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers is strongly supported by recent trends and data. Mayfield has consistently underperformed in this market, with his overall hit rate standing at just 31 out of 65. This trend is even more pronounced in home games, where he has hit the under in 14 out of the last 20 attempts. Furthermore, Mayfield's recent performance indicates a lack of rushing productivity. He has not hit the over in his last 10 games overall and his last 5 home games. Even when facing Carolina, a team he has had some success against, the under has hit in all of his last 4 encounters. The model also gives a slight edge (7.3%) to the under. Given these statistics, the under 16.5 rushing yards bet for Baker Mayfield seems a rational choice.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Betting on Baker Mayfield to fall under 16.5 rushing yards in the game between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers is supported by several statistical factors. Firstly, Mayfield's overall hit rate for the under in his last 20 games is just 5%, and he has not met this mark in his last 10 games irrespective of location. Specifically at home, his hit rate is only 10% in his last 10 games, and has been unsuccessful in his last 5 attempts. These stats suggest a consistent pattern of falling short in rushing yards. However, it's important to note that Mayfield has consistently outperformed against Carolina, hitting the mark in all of his last 4 games against them, including 2 at home. Despite this, the cumulative data leaning towards the under, along with the model edge of 7.06%, makes a compelling case for placing the bet on under 16.5 rushing yards.