Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Saturday 01/03 (Cade Otton Focus)

The statistical trend overwhelmingly supports the under 18.5 bet on Cade Otton's receiving yards. Otton's recent performance illustrates a poor hit rate, failing to surpass 18.5 yards in his last 5 games overall and his last 5 home games. Even when focusing on his performances against the Carolina Panthers, Otton's hit rate is only 1/4 in the last 5 games and 1/4 overall, implying he struggles against this specific opposition. His only successful hit against Carolina came in a home game, but his overall poor form dims the significance of this solitary success. Additionally, Otton is currently on a streak of 0 hits overall, at home, and against Carolina, further reinforcing the under 18.5 bet. Considering these factors, the data-driven model's edge of 0.125188912135207 on the under bet seems a rational choice.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

A statistical analysis of Baker Mayfield's recent rushing performances suggests that the Under 17.5 yards outcome is a strong bet. In his last five overall games, Mayfield has not surpassed this mark, reflected in an overall hit rate of 0/5. This trend is consistent in home games as well, where he has failed to cross the 17.5 yards threshold in the last five matches (home hit rate 0/5). Despite his perfect track record against Carolina (vs_car_hit_rate_last_5: 4/4), it's important to note that these games might be outliers considering his overall underperformance. His current overall and home hit streaks are both at zero, further supporting the belief that he's unlikely to exceed 17.5 rushing yards. Thus, the statistical data tilts the bet in favor of the Under 17.5 yards outcome for Baker Mayfield.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Bucky Irving's recent performance and hit rates provide a strong basis for betting on the under of 17.5 player reception yards in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game. Over his last 5 games, Irving has not exceeded this benchmark, with an overall hit rate of 0/5. More specifically, his performance at home is also poor, with a home hit rate of 0/5. When facing the Panthers, his stats are even less promising. He has not surpassed the 17.5-yard mark in his last two games against this team, both at home and away, which gives him a hit rate of 0/2. The overall current hit streak of 0 further supports the under bet, indicating a lack of recent success. Given these statistics, betting on Irving to stay under 17.5 reception yards seems to be a data-driven decision.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Bucky Irving's recent performance and hit rates suggest a strong rationale for betting on the Under 16.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Irving's overall hit rate in the last 10 games is 0/10, and his home hit rate is 3/10, suggesting a low probability of exceeding 16.5 reception yards. The trend continues when looking at his performance against the Carolina Panthers, with a hit rate of 0/2 overall and 0/1 at home. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 5/20, and his home hit rate is 6/15. This further strengthens the case for betting on the under. Even more compelling is that Irving's hit streaks are all currently at zero. The cumulative data point towards a lower probability of Irving exceeding the 16.5 player reception yards in the upcoming game.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Based on the statistics provided, betting on Baker Mayfield to go under 16.5 rush yards seems statistically sound. Although Mayfield has consistently hit the under against the Panthers (4/4 overall and 2/2 at home), his overall performance is less impressive. In the last 20 games, Mayfield has only exceeded 16.5 rush yards once, and in the last 10 games, he failed to hit this mark at all. His performance at home is also poor, with an overall hit rate of 18/32. Furthermore, his current hit streak is zero, which suggests he is not in a period of high performance. The model edge of 0.073 also indicates that the under bet has a slight advantage. Therefore, based on Mayfield's recent performance and trends, it is reasonable to bet on him not exceeding 16.5 rush yards in the upcoming game against the Panthers.