Kyle Pitts (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Analyzing the data, it is clear that Kyle Pitts has been underperforming in terms of scoring touchdowns. He has had no touchdowns in his last 10 games overall, and in his last 5 games against the Saints. This trend extends to both home and away games. His overall hit rate is 8/60, which is fairly low, and against the Saints, it's even lower at 0/5. His recent performance does not inspire confidence either, as he has not scored in his last 3 games. Given these statistics, it would be a risky bet to wager on Kyle Pitts scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game against the Saints. The model edge of 0.157 is relatively small, further indicating that this bet carries considerable risk. While sports betting is inherently uncertain, the data suggests that this particular bet is not a good one.
Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Tyler Allgeier to score a touchdown at any time during the Falcons vs. Saints game is statistically a risky proposition. Allgeier's recent performance and trends do not support the likelihood of him scoring a touchdown. He has a hit rate of 0 in his last 3, 5, and 10 overall games, as well as in his last 3, 5, and 10 home games. Furthermore, Allgeier's hit rate against the Saints, both overall and at home, is poor. His overall hit rate against the Saints is 1/5, and 0/2 when playing at home. His overall hit rate of 11/66 and home hit rate of 6/32 further suggest that he is unlikely to score. Therefore, while betting always involves a degree of unpredictability, the statistics suggest that a bet on Allgeier to score a touchdown is not advisable.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 44.5 Total Points (+102)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for the Over 44.5 bet in the 'totals' market is based on the scoring data from both teams. Over their last five games, the home team has averaged 23 points while the away team has averaged 24.8 points. This combined score of 47.8 is over the total threshold of 44.5, indicating a potential likelihood of the total score going over this point limit. In addition, the home team is allowing an average of 27 points against them while the away team is allowing an average of 18 points against them, implying both teams' defenses could potentially allow a high scoring game. The model edge of 0.092 also suggests a statistical advantage in choosing the Over. Furthermore, both teams have shown an ability to generate significant yardage in their games, which could translate to more scoring opportunities. Therefore, statistical patterns suggest that betting Over 44.5 may be a viable decision.
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