Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills : NA -10.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Buffalo Bills are favored by 10.5 points in the spread market, which, given the team's recent performance, presents a compelling betting opportunity. The Bills have an impressive track record, with a 4-1 overall record in their last five games and a 3-2 record in their last five away games. They have significantly outperformed their opponents, with a 7.2 overall point difference and a 6.6 point difference in their away games. Furthermore, the Bills have consistently scored more points in their last five games with an average of 32.6 points, compared to their home opponents' 16 points. They also have a higher average total yards per game (375.8) than their opponents (263.2). Additionally, the Bills have a higher explosive rate for, indicating their ability to make big plays. These statistical advantages suggest that the Bills are likely to cover the spread of 10.5 points in the upcoming game.
Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Analyzing Cedric Tillman's recent performance and trends, it's clear the odds are skewed towards the under in the 'player_reception_yds' market for the game between the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. Tillman's overall hit rate for the last 10 games is 0/10, and his home hit rate is only marginally better at 1/10. This trend of underperformance extends to his last 20 games, with an overall hit rate of 5/20 and a home hit rate of 6/17. He is currently on a hit streak of 0, both overall and at home. These statistics demonstrate Tillman's consistent inability to surpass the 13.5 reception yards mark in recent games, making the under bet a statistically sound choice. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.0278652510022713 suggests that the model also favors the under outcome.
Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 12.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Under 12.5 bet on Cedric Tillman in the 'player_reception_yds' market is underpinned by Tillman's recent performance patterns and hit rates. Over his last five games, both overall and at home, Tillman has a hit rate of 0/5, suggesting he has not reached more than 12.5 reception yards in any of those games. Additionally, his hit rate over the last ten games is substantially low at 0/10 overall and only slightly better at home with 1/10. This trend reinforces the notion of Tillman underperforming in recent times. His overall current hit streak is also at 0, indicating a lack of momentum. By considering these statistics, the Under 12.5 bet for Tillman's reception yards seems a statistically sound decision. The model edge of 0.0166479615370928, though slim, also supports this conclusion.
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