Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Friday 11/07 (Bo Nix Focus)

Betting on Bo Nix to record under 20.5 rushing yards seems a plausible bet, given his recent performances. A key aspect to consider is Nix's recent performance, where he has a current overall hit streak of 0, indicating he has not exceeded 20.5 rushing yards in recent games. His overall hit rate is also low at 7/27, which supports the under 20.5 bet. Similarly, Nix's performance at home is not promising, with a hit rate of 4/12 and a current home hit streak of 0. This trend suggests he struggles to surpass 20.5 rushing yards, especially when playing at home, which will be the case in the upcoming game against the Raiders. While Nix has a 100% hit rate against the Raiders, both at home and overall, these statistics are based on a small sample size (2 games), which may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. Therefore, considering

Jalen Nailor (MIN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

A betting rationale for Jalen Nailor to stay under 20.5 reception yards in the Vikings vs Ravens game is supported by his recent performance and hit rates. Nailor's recent play suggests a struggling form, given that he has failed to surpass 20.5 yards in his last five games (0/5 overall hit rate). This trend is even more evident in his home games, where he has only surpassed this mark once in the last five games (1/5 home hit rate). His overall hit rate doesn't offer much support either, with a success rate of 13/31, or around 42% overall, and a slightly better but still modest 46% (6/13) in home games. The model edge of 0.1403 also suggests that the under bet is the statistically favored outcome. Lastly, he is currently on zero-game hit streak both overall and at home, further backing the under 20.5 bet.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Betting on Jonathan Taylor to hit under 17.5 reception yards is supported by several statistical trends. First, Taylor's recent performance indicates a downturn in his reception yards, as shown by his overall hit rate in his last 3, 5, and 10 games being 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10 respectively. His performance at home also mirrors this trend, with hit rates of 0/3, 0/5, and 4/10 in his last 3, 5, and 10 home games. Additionally, Taylor's current hit streak in both overall and home games is zero, further suggesting a downturn in his reception yard production. While he has hit the mark in his last game against Atlanta, it's important to note that it's a single data point. Therefore, based on Taylor's recent trends and performances, there's a strong case for betting under 17.5 in the player reception yards market.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The under bet on Jonathan Taylor for under 17.5 receiving yards seems like a solid option based on recent performance and statistical trends. Taylor has struggled to hit this mark recently, as shown by his overall hit rate in the last 3 games (0/3), last 5 games (0/5), and even in the last 10 games (1/10). His performance at home is also not encouraging with hit rates of 0/3 and 0/5 in the last 3 and 5 home games, respectively. Although he has hit the mark in his last match against Atlanta (1/1), it's important to note that this is a small sample size. His overall hit rate is barely above 50% (26/44), which further supports the under bet. The model edge of 0.076 also points towards the under bet. Therefore, the under bet seems statistically favorable based on Taylor's recent performance and trends.

Adam Trautman (DEN) Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Betting on Adam Trautman to achieve over 7.5 in the player_reception_yds market for the Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders game is supported by his historical performance. Although Trautman's recent overall and home performance has been less stellar, his performance against Las Vegas Raiders and especially at home against Las Vegas is encouraging. His hit rate against Las Vegas Raiders is 75% (3/4) overall, and 100% (2/2) for games played at home. In fact, his current hit streak at home against Las Vegas stands at 2. Additionally, Trautman has a better hit rate at home (14/22, roughly 64%) compared to his overall hit rate (25/47, roughly 53%). The model edge of 4.4% also provides a slight advantage. Therefore, the statistics indicate a higher probability of Trautman achieving over 7.5 in the player_reception_yds market in this specific game