Jordan Addison (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jordan Addison to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Baltimore Ravens may not be the most promising bet, according to recent stats. Addison’s performance has been relatively weak, with an overall hit rate of 15 out of 38 attempts, which translates to a success rate of just under 40%. His recent performance has been particularly worrying, with no touchdowns scored in the last five games overall, and only two in the last ten. Addison has also not been successful in his last three games at home, which suggests that playing on home turf does not necessarily give him an advantage. His current streak, both overall and at home, is zero touchdowns. The model's edge is just 0.157, indicating a very slim advantage. The data suggests that it might be wise to consider other betting options.
Jalen Nailor (MIN) Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
A betting rationale for Jalen Nailor to stay under 20.5 reception yards in the Vikings vs Ravens game is supported by his recent performance and hit rates. Nailor's recent play suggests a struggling form, given that he has failed to surpass 20.5 yards in his last five games (0/5 overall hit rate). This trend is even more evident in his home games, where he has only surpassed this mark once in the last five games (1/5 home hit rate). His overall hit rate doesn't offer much support either, with a success rate of 13/31, or around 42% overall, and a slightly better but still modest 46% (6/13) in home games. The model edge of 0.1403 also suggests that the under bet is the statistically favored outcome. Lastly, he is currently on zero-game hit streak both overall and at home, further backing the under 20.5 bet.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown in the upcoming game between the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens seems risky given his recent performance. Jefferson has not scored in his last five games, reflected in an overall hit rate of 0/5. His performance at home is slightly better, with one touchdown in the last five home games (1/5). Over the last 20 games, Jefferson's overall hit rate is 3/20, but at home, it's significantly higher at 9/20. Jefferson's overall touchdown rate is roughly 37% (20/54), which is decent, but still indicates inconsistency. The model edge of about 5.8% is relatively low, suggesting a close call on this bet. Given these stats, while Jefferson has shown potential in home games, his recent lack of scoring flags caution for this bet.
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