Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 03/11 (Amen Thompson Highlights): Best Value Bets

As the Cavaliers prepare to clash with the Magic, all eyes will be on Donovan Mitchell's scoring prowess. However, I'm leaning towards the under on his points total of 28.5. While Mitchell has been a scoring machine, averaging a hefty 34.2 points in his last five games, the road has not been as kind. He's only managed an average of 19.4 points when playing away-quite the drop-off.It's also worth considering that in his most recent outings against Orlando, Mitchell's numbers dip, with only 23.4 points per game on the road against them. With the Magic's defense tightening up, expecting Mitchell to hit the 28.5 mark seems like a stretch. Given his recent track record, hitting the under feels like a smart play. With a solid hit rate of 9 out of 10 in away games, this could be a game where he finds it tough to crack that number.

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)

As Cleveland gears up to face Orlando, targeting Sam Merrill for under 15.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists feels like a savvy play. Merrill has been quiet lately, averaging just 6.8 points and 2.6 rebounds across his last five games. When you zoom in on his away performances, those numbers plummet further, with just 3.6 points and under 1 assist in his last five road games. Against the Magic specifically, he's managed a mere 4.8 points on average. His overall hit rate is impressive, hitting the under in 9 of his last 10 games, but let's not overlook that he's perfect on the road in his last seven outings. With the Cavaliers relying on their star players, Merrill may find himself as a peripheral figure in this matchup. It's a classic case of knowing when to cash in on a player who simply isn't in a position to shine.

Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

Ja'Kobe Walter is stepping into a prime opportunity when the Pelicans face off against the Raptors. With a knack for rising to the occasion, he's averaged a solid 12.6 points over his last five games, including a commendable 11.2 points in away contests. What's truly compelling is his recent form against Toronto, where he's not just hitting the mark but exceeding it, averaging 14 points in their last five matchups.Walter has been on fire, hitting the over on 6.5 points in all of his last six games, with a perfect 5-for-5 away record. The Pelicans will look to him as a key contributor, especially in a game that could swing either way. With the implied probability sitting at 57.5% and an expected stat value of nearly 10 points, betting on Walter to go over 6.5 points feels like a savvy play.

Keon Ellis (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-130)

Keon Ellis has been quietly making a name for himself, and this matchup against the Cavaliers presents a prime opportunity for him to shine. With an average of 10.3 points over his last five games against Cleveland, he's shown he can step up when it counts. The Magic will look to him for scoring, especially at home, where he's averaging 7.6 points in his past five outings. What's even more compelling is his recent performance-Ellis has hit the over 5.5 points in 15 of his last 20 games. With the Cavaliers struggling defensively, allowing an average of 9.5 points to players in Ellis's position, he's poised to exceed this line comfortably. The combination of a favorable matchup and his current form suggests that taking the over on Ellis is not just a smart play-it's almost a necessity for those looking to capitalize on this game.

Cody Williams (Utah Jazz) Under 2.5 Assists (-189)

Cody Williams has been a bit of a silent contributor for the Utah Jazz this season, especially when playing at home. With averages hovering around just 0.8 assists in his last five home games, it's clear that he's not finding opportunities to dish it off. Going against the New York Knicks, who have stifled playmaking from guards, Williams hasn't recorded a single assist in his last five matchups against them, including at home. His recent form reflects a concerning trend-he's hit the under on 2.5 assists in all 11 of his last outings. With a hit rate of 5-for-5 at home, the odds heavily favor us here. Expect the Jazz to lean on their primary scorers, leaving Williams in a position where his playmaking impact is diminished. Taking the under feels like a savvy move as he continues to blend into the background of Utah's offensive schemes.