Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 03/17 (Trey Murphy III Highlights): Best Value Bets

Reed Sheppard has been a pleasant surprise for the Houston Rockets this season, but when it comes to rebounding, the stats suggest he might struggle against the Lakers. While he's shown flashes of potential, Sheppard has hit the Under on rebounds in all of his last 15 games, and the trend continues at home, where he's gone Under in every one of his last 20 matchups. The Lakers present a formidable challenge with their size and rebounding prowess, making it even tougher for Sheppard to snag those boards. Given that he's projected to finish with a mere 1.35 rebounds, targeting the Under at 3.5 feels like a smart move. With an implied probability of 64.9% backing this bet, it's hard to ignore the data. In a game where every possession counts, don't expect Sheppard to be racking up the rebounds tonight.

Bennedict Mathurin (Indiana Pacers) Under 2.5 Assists (-179)

As we dive into the matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio Spurs, targeting Bennedict Mathurin for under 2.5 assists feels like a prudent bet. While Mathurin has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends tell a different story. Over his last five outings, he's averaging just 1.2 assists overall, and even in home games, that number climbs only to 1.4. When facing the Spurs, he's managed 1.6 assists, but that's still shy of our target. Given that the Spurs typically allow an average of 2 assists to opponents at home, Mathurin's history against them suggests he's not likely to exceed his modest output. With an impressive hit rate of 19 out of his last 20 games hitting under this number, this bet not only feels safe but also strategically sound. In a game where every possession counts, it's the assists that might just slip through his fingers.

Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) Over 2.5 Assists (-154)

In the upcoming matchup against the Clippers, Victor Wembanyama is primed to showcase his playmaking prowess. Averaging 3.4 assists over his last five games, he's clearly found his rhythm, and when it comes to playing the Clippers, he's stepping up even more, averaging 3.8 assists against them. What's particularly intriguing is his recent form; he's hit the over on 2.5 assists in each of his last four games, which paints a picture of a player on a mission. On the road, he's also maintained that perfect streak, proving he doesn't shy away from the challenge. With his unique skill set and the Clippers' defensive focus likely on limiting his scoring, it opens up lanes for him to dish out assists. Expect Wembanyama to not just meet, but exceed that 2.5 mark as he continues to evolve in his rookie campaign.

Max Christie (Dallas Mavericks) Under 12.5 Points (-128)

As the Dallas Mavericks gear up to face the New Orleans Pelicans, all eyes will be on Max Christie. However, betting on him to score over 12.5 points seems risky. Recent trends reveal Christie averaging a modest 6.6 points on the road, and against the Mavericks, he's managed just 2.2 points away in their last matchup. His overall scoring has dipped too, with just 7.2 points in his last five outings. While he hit the over in four of those games, his consistency fades when playing away, hitting the under in all three recent road games. With an expected stat value of just 9.81, it appears the odds are stacked against him. Given these numbers, wagering on Christie to stay under 12.5 points feels like a savvy play as he navigates a formidable Mavericks defense. Don't count on him to shine bright in this matchup.

Max Christie (Dallas Mavericks) Over 2.5 Rebounds (-175)

Max Christie is primed for a standout performance in his matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. With a recent average of 3.8 rebounds over his last five games, Christie has shown a knack for cleaning the glass, especially in away games where he's averaged 3.4. Facing a Pelicans team that can sometimes struggle on the boards, Christie's potential to snag at least three rebounds feels very much within reach.Digging deeper, he's hit the over in 10 of his last 12 outings, which speaks volumes about his consistency. Notably, in his last 15 away games, he's successfully surpassed the 2.5 mark 11 times. With an expected stat value of 3.76 and an implied probability of 63.7%, this isn't just a hunch-it's backed by solid data. As he steps onto the court in New Orleans, expect Christie to capitalize on every opportunity and come through for bettors.