Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 03/12 (Donovan Mitchell Highlights): Best Value Bets

As the Pelicans gear up to face the Raptors, all eyes should be on Dejounte Murray to shine on home turf. With an impressive history of hitting the over, he's finished with 25.26 expected combined points and assists in recent outings. Over the last 14 games, Murray has surpassed our 21.5 mark in 12 of them-that's a 86% hit rate, showcasing his rising confidence and effectiveness. At home, he's averaged 19 points and 6 assists, but against the Raptors, those numbers creep up to 19.2 and 6.2. With the crowd behind him, you can expect Murray to elevate his game. Given the Raptors' defensive vulnerabilities, especially on the perimeter, this is the perfect moment for Murray to exploit mismatches and deliver a standout performance. Lock in that over; he's primed to keep his momentum rolling.

Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets) Under 5.5 Assists (-172)

As the Houston Rockets visit the Denver Nuggets, all eyes will be on young Amen Thompson. However, betting under 5.5 assists for him makes a lot of sense right now. In his last five games, Thompson has averaged just 2.8 assists, and when he's on the road, that number creeps up slightly to 3.8. But here's the kicker: against Denver, he hasn't recorded a single assist in their last matchups, which is pretty telling. His overall hit rate for this prop is strikingly consistent, as he's gone under in six straight appearances. Given the Nuggets' solid defensive schemes and the pressure of playing in Denver, it's likely Thompson will struggle to find his rhythm. With an expected stat value of just 4.04, this under feels like a safe bet. It's all about recognizing the trends, and right now, they point towards Thompson falling short of that 5.5 mark.

Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

In the upcoming clash between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Toronto Raptors, keep an eye on Ja'Kobe Walter for an intriguing player prop bet on his points total. Walter has been on a tear lately, averaging a solid 12.6 points per game over his last five outings, and when you narrow it down to his performances on the road, that average dips only slightly to 11.2. What's truly impressive is his recent track record against the Raptors, where he's notched an average of 14 points in their last five encounters, even matching that away from home. With his current form hitting six consecutive overs, it seems like a prime opportunity for Walter to eclipse the modest line of 6.5. Given his expected stat value of nearly 10 points and a strong away hit rate, betting on Walter to go over feels like a savvy move in this matchup.

Keon Ellis (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-130)

As we gear up for the Orlando Magic's clash against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Keon Ellis stands out as a prime candidate for a points prop bet. Sure, his recent average of 5.4 points per game might raise an eyebrow, but let's dig deeper. In his last five home games, he's ramped it up to 7.6 points, and his history against the Cavaliers is even more compelling-averaging 10.3 points in their last five meetings. When you consider Ellis's impressive hit rate of 75% over his last 20 games, it's clear he's been consistently finding ways to score. The Cavaliers have struggled to contain scoring guards, allowing an average of 9.5 points in similar matchups. With the expected stat value nudging up to 8.46, betting on Ellis to exceed 5.5 points feels like a savvy play. Watch for him to step up and make an impact on the scoreboard.

Keyonte George (Utah Jazz) Over 2.5 Rebounds (-135)

When you look at Keyonte George's rebounding numbers, it's hard to ignore the momentum he's built, especially at home. Over the last 17 games, he's hit the over on 2.5 rebounds a staggering 15 times-talk about consistency! In his recent outings, George has averaged 3.2 rebounds, with a solid 2.8 at home. The matchup against the Knicks is also promising, as he's pulled down an average of 2 rebounds against them at home. With the Jazz hosting New York, the energy in the arena should elevate his performance. The implied probability of 57.5% indicates that the odds are in our favor. Given that George has an expected stat value of 3.75, it seems almost inevitable that he'll surpass that 2.5 mark. It's a calculated bet with a solid foundation-let's ride the wave on this one!