Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Monday 03/16 (Mikal Bridges Highlights): Best Value Bets

As the Sacramento Kings prepare to face the Utah Jazz, DeMar DeRozan is poised to make a significant impact on the boards. With an average of 4.4 rebounds over his last five games, he's not just hitting the mark; he's consistently exceeding it. Playing at home, DeRozan has grabbed an impressive 15 rebounds in his last 20 outings, averaging 3.4 per game in that stretch. Against the Jazz, he's proven to be particularly effective, averaging 4.4 rebounds in their recent matchups. The numbers are in his favor, and with DeRozan's current form-having hit the over in all five of his last games-the odds are stacking up nicely for him to clear that modest threshold of 2.5. Expect him to thrive in the home environment, where he's comfortable and has demonstrated an ability to contribute across the board.

DeMar DeRozan (Sacramento Kings) Over 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (-147)

As DeMar DeRozan prepares to take the court at home against the Utah Jazz, all signs point to him exceeding 7.5 combined rebounds and assists. Over his last three games in Sacramento, he's been sensational, hitting this mark every time. His average of 5.8 assists at home is telling, and against the Jazz, he's known to elevate his game-averaging 6.2 assists in their last five matchups. While his overall rebounding numbers may be modest, he's still pulling down about 3.4 boards at home, and we know that DeRozan thrives in front of his fans. With an expected stat value of 8.96 and a solid hit rate recently, it feels like a prime opportunity for him to shine. The Kings will likely rely on his playmaking to keep the Jazz at bay, making this prop a compelling play to consider.

Brice Sensabaugh (Utah Jazz) Under 2.5 Assists (-179)

As the Utah Jazz prepare to face off against the Sacramento Kings, all eyes should be on Brice Sensabaugh, particularly when it comes to his assist total. While the young player has shown flashes of brilliance, recent trends suggest he'll fall short of 2.5 assists in this matchup. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 1.8 assists, and when you look at his performance specifically against the Kings, it drops to 1.2 assists per game. Even more telling is his away performance, where his assist average is only 2.5 when facing tougher defenses. The Kings, with their cohesive defensive schemes, could stifle Sensabaugh's playmaking opportunities. With an impressive 8-for-9 hit rate on this prop recently and the odds leaning towards the under, it feels like a smart play to expect him to struggle to reach that 2.5 mark tonight.

Gary Payton II (Golden State Warriors) Under 6.5 Rebounds (-1250)

As the Golden State Warriors head to Madison Square Garden, all eyes will be on Gary Payton II, but betting on him to snag more than 6.5 rebounds could be a miscalculation. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 2 rebounds, and even less on the road, with only 1.6 per outing. It's telling that against the Knicks, his history shows a consistent ceiling of just 2 boards. Digging deeper into his performance, Payton has hit the under on this prop in eight consecutive away games, showing a clear trend. New York's physical frontcourt poses a tough challenge, which could further limit his opportunities. Given these numbers, targeting the under on Payton feels like a savvy play. With an implied probability soaring at 92.6%, it's hard to see him breaking through this barrier. Trust the stats-this one leans heavily toward the under.