Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 09/03 (Ben Ainsworth Highlights): Finding the Edge

Ethan Read is a strong choice to snag a goal against Fremantle, supported by his recent form. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and a consistent 1.2 goals overall, his scoring ability is evident. His goal accuracy of 33.3% on the road is promising, especially with an average of 2.4 shots at goal per game. Additionally, his involvement in generating scores, averaging 3.6 score involvements away, showcases his impact on the game. Considering Fremantle's defensive vulnerabilities, Ethan Read's goal-scoring trend aligns well with the model's prediction of 1.3 goals, indicating a 19.6% edge. Betting on Ethan Read to score anytime is a logical play given his recent performances and the matchup dynamics.

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 17.5 Disposals (-118)

Lachie Weller is predicted to have 14.5 disposals with a 5 SD deviation, suggesting a strong chance to stay under the line of 17.5. His recent away form shows an average of 12.6 disposals, below the line. While facing Fremantle, he averages 17 disposals in away games, potentially falling short of the line. Weller's overall disposals average of 17.2 is also below the threshold. His steady 5-game hit streak in away matches indicates consistency but not exceeding 17.5 disposals. Considering his recent performance trends, model insights, and matchup data, betting on Weller to go under 17.5 disposals against Fremantle at Optus Stadium seems a statistically supported choice.

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-119)

Patrick Dangerfield's recent performance, especially at home, suggests he may struggle to reach 15.5 disposals. With a model prediction of 12.5 and a significant 17.9% edge, his L5 home disposals average of 14.6 falls below the line. Additionally, his L5 stats against Brisbane show an average of 18.4 disposals, still under the line. Despite his overall form, his L5 turnovers averaging 3.2 could hinder his possession accumulation. With a solid 73.7% disposal efficiency but facing a tough opponent, betting on Dangerfield to go under 15.5 disposals seems a sensible choice for this AFL matchup at the MCG.

Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-333)

Jeremy Cameron is on fire with a 5-game goal streak at home, averaging 4.6 goals per game in his last 5 home matches. Facing Brisbane, he has been consistent with a 5-game goal streak overall. His recent stats show he is hitting form, scoring an average of 5 goals in his last 5 games overall. With an average of 7.4 shots at goal per game and a solid home goal accuracy of 68.5%, Cameron is primed to capitalize on his opportunities. The model's prediction of 2.8 goals, with a 17.8% edge, suggests a high likelihood of him snagging more than 1.5 goals in this matchup, making this bet on Cameron to score over 1.5 goals a compelling choice.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-116)

Dylan Moore's recent form, averaging 18.4 disposals in his last five away games, coupled with facing an opponent where he averages 19.2 disposals, supports taking the Over 19.5 bet. His consistent contested possessions (5.6) and disposal efficiency (64.3%) also bode well. The model's prediction of 22.4 disposals, with a solid edge of 17.8%, indicates a strong likelihood of Moore surpassing the line. Despite lacking a recent hit streak, his overall hit rate and steady performance metrics suggest a high probability of exceeding 19.5 disposals. With these factors aligning, Moore appears poised to contribute significantly in the upcoming match against the GWS Giants.