Today's NBA Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds (Monday 12/01 Slate)

The bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers at -6.5 in the point spread market is primarily driven by their strong performance at home and against the Boston Celtics. The Cavaliers have a home record of 3-2, indicating a higher probability of winning at home. Their past record against the Celtics is promising, with three out of the last five encounters resulting in victories. Furthermore, the Cavaliers' L5 opponent team score at home is 105.2, lower than the Celtics' corresponding figure of 111.8, suggesting the Cavaliers' defensive strength at home. Finally, their overall L5 team score matches that of the Celtics, but with the home advantage and a strong record against the Celtics, a bet on the Cavaliers to win by more than 6.5 points is statistically sound.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks : Atlanta Hawks 1.5 (-118)

The bet on 'Atlanta Hawks 1.5' in the Point Spread market is a logical choice given the recent performance data. Despite the Atlanta Hawks' away record of 1-4, their overall score in the last five games (126.8) is significantly higher than the Philadelphia 76ers' (115.6). Similarly, when playing away, the Hawks' score (117.2) also outperforms the 76ers' home score (108.4). Furthermore, the Hawks have proven their ability to maintain a high scoring rate against opponents, with an opponent team score of 120 when playing away. The 76ers may have a better head-to-head record, but the Hawks' superior scoring trend indicates a greater potential to cover the 1.5 point spread.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks : Atlanta Hawks win (-105)

Despite the model predicting a Philadelphia 76ers win, the betting choice of Atlanta Hawks is a calculated risk. Over the last five games, the Hawks have outscored the 76ers, both overall and in away games. Their overall L5 score is 126.8 compared to the 76ers' 115.6, and away it's 117.2 versus the 76ers' home score of 108.4. While both teams have an L5 overall record of 3-2, the Hawks' superior scoring ability could tip the balance in their favor. Furthermore, it's worth noting the 76ers' home advantage hasn't translated into a consistently superior performance, as evident by their 3-2 home record. Thus, betting on the Hawks, despite their lower probability, reflects their recent high-scoring trend potentially overriding the 76ers' slight home advantage.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder : Oklahoma City Thunder Under 132.5 Team Total Points (-588)

The bet on 'Oklahoma City Thunder Under 132.5' for the Team Total Points is a statistically supported choice. The Thunder's scoring average over their last five games is 117.8 points, notably lower than the bet's threshold of 132.5 points. This trend holds even when looking at Thunder's away games, where they scored an average of 117 points. The model's prediction also supports this under bet, forecasting a total of 113.16 points for the Thunder. Furthermore, Thunder's 2-3 record in their last five games suggests they are not in their peak scoring form. This data collectively indicates the Thunder may struggle to exceed the 132.5 total points, making the under bet a good choice.

New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors : Toronto Raptors 7.5 (-110)

Despite the Knicks' higher scoring average in the last five games, they've only won 1 out of the last 4 matches against the Raptors. In addition, the Raptors have managed to keep their opponents' scores lower than the Knicks have (106.2 versus 121.6). The point spread market is betting on the margin of victory; in this case, the Raptors are given a 7.5 point handicap. However, the model predicts a tighter game at 4.59 points. Despite the Knicks' home advantage, the Raptors' strong performance against them and ability to limit their opponents' scoring make them a good choice for this bet. Although the Knicks score more, they also allow more points, which could prove beneficial for the Raptors.