Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Under 3.75 Total Goals (-175)
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The 'Under 3.75' bet is driven by the scoring averages and defensive prowess of both teams. Real Madrid's home scoring average is 2, while Villarreal's away scoring average is 1.2, summing to 3.2, which is below the 3.75 line. Real Madrid's expected goals (xG) at home (2.8) and Villarreal's xG away (1.54) also total less than 3.75. Furthermore, both teams have solid defensive records; Real Madrid concede an average of 1 goal at home, and Villarreal concede 0.8 goals away. Moreover, the head-to-head record shows a dominance of low-scoring games, with Real Madrid having a winning edge. Essentially, the data suggests that both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive strengths should result in a game with fewer than 3.75 goals.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Villarreal Draw No Bet (+370)
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Villarreal's recent performance against Real Madrid has been impressive, with only 1 loss in their last 5 encounters. Although Real Madrid has a strong home record, Villarreal's away record is also commendable, with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games. Furthermore, Villarreal has a higher average of shots on target (4.6) than Real Madrid (4.2), indicating a higher scoring potential. Additionally, Villarreal's expected goals (xG) at 1.5 is close to Real Madrid's 1.72, suggesting they are creating a similar number of scoring opportunities. Finally, Villarreal's defensive stats are also better, with fewer fouls committed and a lower opponent xG, indicating a tighter defense. All these factors make Villarreal a good choice for the Draw No Bet market.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Villarreal Moneyline (+500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Villarreal as the match winner is a viable option considering their recent away performance. Villarreal's expected goals (xG) on the road (1.54) is close to Real Madrid's xG at home (1.72), indicating a strong offensive capability. Furthermore, Villarreal's average opponent's xG (0.96) suggests a solid defence, better than Real Madrid's (1.56). Villarreal also has a better shots on target average (4.6) compared to Real Madrid (4.2), signifying more efficient attempts. Although Real Madrid has a strong home record, Villarreal's performance against the opponent (1-1-3) isn't too far off. Additionally, Villarreal has demonstrated a stronger tackling game (11.4 vs 7.4), which could disrupt Real Madrid's play. This, combined with their comparable scoring and xG stats, makes Villarreal a credible threat to Real Madrid in this match.
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