Real Madrid vs Valencia: Valencia +5.5 Goal Handicap (-3333)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Valencia 5.5' in the handicap market is a strategic choice based on Valencia's recent performance. Despite Valencia's overall away record being weaker than Real Madrid's home record, the handicap of 5.5 goals provides a significant cushion. Real Madrid's average score at home over the last 5 games is 2.4, while Valencia's average score away is 1.4. This indicates a typical goal difference of only 1 goal, far less than the 5.5-goal handicap. Furthermore, the Expected Goals (xG) stats, which predict the number of goals a team is expected to score based on the quality of their chances, also favour this bet. Real Madrid's home xG is 2.8 compared to Valencia's away xG of 1.2, suggesting an average goal difference of 1.6, again less than the 5.5-goal handicap. Therefore, the statistics indicate that Valencia should cover the 5.5-goal handicap.
Real Madrid vs Valencia: Draw Moneyline (+650)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistics suggest a draw between Real Madrid and Valencia is a plausible outcome. Real Madrid has a strong home record, however, their record against Valencia shows a draw and a loss in the last five matches. Valencia's away record isn't particularly strong, but they've managed to draw and win against Real Madrid in the past five encounters. The average goal difference for both teams is also quite close; Real Madrid scores an average of 2 goals per game, while Valencia scores 1.4. This slim margin combined with Valencia's slightly higher average tackles won could result in a closely contested match. Moreover, the expected goals (xG) for both teams are also close, indicating that both teams have similar chances of scoring. All these factors suggest a tight match, making a draw a reasonable prediction.
Real Madrid vs Valencia: Draw Moneyline (+650)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The draw bet for the Real Madrid vs Valencia match is a calculated wager based on the teams' recent performances and historical head-to-head data. Real Madrid's home record is strong, but their record against Valencia shows a draw in the last five games. Valencia's recent away record is not impressive, but they have managed to secure a draw against Real Madrid, suggesting they can withstand Real Madrid's offense. Furthermore, the average goals scored and conceded by both teams are close, indicating a likelihood of a balanced game. Valencia's expected goals (xG) are also not far behind Real Madrid's, showing they have the potential to score. These factors combined suggest a competitive match where both teams could struggle to secure a decisive victory, hence a draw is a viable outcome.
 
                
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