Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks : Under 47.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting Under 47.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is driven by the recent scoring and defensive trends of both teams. The home team has an average score of 18.4 points in their last five games, while the visiting team has scored an average of 17.2 points. This combined score of 35.6 is well below the total set at 47.5. Furthermore, the home team has a negative point differential in their last five games (-10), indicating a struggling offense. The visiting team also has a negative point differential (-3.2), suggesting similar struggles. Additionally, both teams have negative Expected Points Added (EPA) differentials, indicating inefficiency in creating scoring opportunities. Moreover, both teams have high EPA against scores, meaning their defenses are letting opponents make plays that increase their chances of scoring. All these factors statistically support a bet on the Under 47.5 outcome.
Jaylen Warren (PIT) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
While Jaylen Warren has a perfect hit rate against the Seattle Seahawks (1/1), his overall scoring trend is less encouraging, with only 6 touchdowns in 51 games. His recent performance also suggests a downturn in form, with no touchdowns in his last 3 games overall and at home, and no touchdowns in his last 5 games both overall and at home. His overall hit rate at home is particularly low, with only 1 touchdown in 24 games. Additionally, he currently has a hit streak of 0, showing a lack of recent success in scoring touchdowns. Despite a small model edge of 0.0767, the dominating negative trends suggest a bet on Warren to score a touchdown in the 'player_anytime_td' market may not be the best decision based purely on his statistical performance.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks : Over 47.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 47.5 in the 'totals' market is supported by a combination of offensive and defensive statistics for both teams. The home team has been scoring an average of 18.4 points and conceding 28.4 points over their last five games, which combined exceeds our target of 47.5. On the other hand, the away team has scored an average of 17.2 points and conceded 20.4 points, which is slightly lower than our target. However, the away team's scoring average increases to 22.4 points when playing away from home. Additionally, the home team has a positive explosive rate for, which indicates their ability to produce big plays that can quickly add to the game's total score. The model also suggests a slight edge (6.31%) on this over bet. While both teams' recent performances suggest a close call, these factors collectively lean towards a total score exceeding 47.5.
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