Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars : NA -2.5 Point Spread (-135)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistics favor a bet on the Cincinnati Bengals at -2.5 in the spreads market for several reasons. Firstly, their recent performance has been stronger than their opponents, with the Bengals achieving a 5-0 overall record in their last five games, compared to the away team's 2-3. They've also outperformed their rivals in terms of scoring, with an average of 25.4 points per game at home versus the away team's 21.6. The Bengals' Expected Points Added (EPA) statistics are also superior, with a home overall EPA difference of 8.83 compared to the away team's 1.64. This suggests the Bengals have been more efficient with their possessions. They also have an impressive turnover difference at home, forcing 1.2 more turnovers than they've given up. Finally, the Bengals have a higher explosive rate, indicating more big-play potential. This amalgamation of data points towards a favourable outcome for the Bengals
Andrei Iosivas (CIN) Over 4.5 Player reception yds alternate (-303)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Andrei Iosivas to go over 4.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market is statistically justified. Iosivas has displayed consistent performance, achieving the 'Over' outcome in his last nine games (overall_current_hit_streak: 9), and his last four home games (home_current_hit_streak: 4). His overall hit rate is highly favorable at 21/26, which is an impressive 80.7% success rate. Additionally, his home hit rate is 78.6% (11/14), indicating his high performance irrespective of the venue. In a longer timeframe, Iosivas has hit the 'Over' 18 times out of 20 (90% success rate) and 9 times out of the last 10 games (90% success rate). His recent performance trends and hit rates suggest a high probability of success for this bet, justifying the model's edge of 0.113619
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+116)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
This bet is predicated on the belief that Joe Burrow, the quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals, will rush for more than 9.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The statistical data suggests a moderate level of confidence in this outcome. Burrow has a better performance rate at home, with a hit rate of 4/5 in the last five home games and a current hit streak of 2 at home. This suggests a trend of Burrow exceeding 9.5 rushing yards in home games. Moreover, the Bengals are playing at home in this game, further supporting the bet. However, it's important to note that Burrow's overall hit rate is less convincing, at 18/47. This discrepancy may reflect Burrow's difficulty translating his home performance to away games, but this is not a concern for this particular bet. The model edge of 0.0929 also indicates a slight advantage over the bookmakers' odds.
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