Chase Brown (CIN) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Chase Brown for 'Under 16.5' in the 'player_reception_yds' market is supported by his recent performance and hit rate trends. Starting with his overall performance, Brown's hit rate on this market is less than half, with 16 successful bets out of 37. The trend becomes even more clear when focusing on more recent games. In the last 10 games, Brown's hit rate was a mere 20%, falling to 20% in the last 5 games and zero in the last 3 games. This negative trend continues when looking at home games, where Brown's hit rate was 0/3 in the last 3 and 1/5 in the last 5. His current hit streaks for both overall and home games are zero, indicating a consistent underperformance. Although he has a perfect hit rate against the Jaguars, this is based on a single game, so it provides limited predictive value. Overall, the statistics suggest that
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 9.5 Player rush yds alternate (+116)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
This bet is predicated on the belief that Joe Burrow, the quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals, will rush for more than 9.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The statistical data suggests a moderate level of confidence in this outcome. Burrow has a better performance rate at home, with a hit rate of 4/5 in the last five home games and a current hit streak of 2 at home. This suggests a trend of Burrow exceeding 9.5 rushing yards in home games. Moreover, the Bengals are playing at home in this game, further supporting the bet. However, it's important to note that Burrow's overall hit rate is less convincing, at 18/47. This discrepancy may reflect Burrow's difficulty translating his home performance to away games, but this is not a concern for this particular bet. The model edge of 0.0929 also indicates a slight advantage over the bookmakers' odds.
Andrei Iosivas (CIN) Over 0.5 Player receptions alternate (-417)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Andrei Iosivas to have Over 0.5 receptions in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars game is quite compelling, primarily driven by his recent performance. Iosivas has a consistent track record of surpassing this outcome, with an overall hit rate of 23/26, translating to an impressive 88.5%. His home hit rate is equally robust at 12/14 (85.7%). Focusing on his most recent trends, he's currently on a 9-game hit streak overall and a 4-game hit streak at home, further reinforcing his consistent performance. His hit rate over the last 10 games is 90%, both overall and at home, while his hit rate over the last 5 games is perfect overall and 80% at home. This consistency across different settings and over time suggests a strong likelihood that Iosivas will continue this trend and have at least one reception in the upcoming game against the Jaguars.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 7.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Joe Burrow to rush for Over 7.5 yards in the 'player_rush_yds' market during the Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars game is supported by several key statistics. Burrow's performance at home has been strong, with a perfect 5/5 hit rate in his last five home games and a current home hit streak of 5. This suggests that Burrow performs particularly well in home conditions. While his overall hit rate is less consistent, his home hit rate of 13/21 overall and 12/20 in the last 20 home games still indicates a strong likelihood of achieving over 7.5 rushing yards. The model edge of around 7% also supports this bet. Given these stats, and considering his past performance and current form, betting on Joe Burrow to rush for over 7.5 yards seems like a statistically sound choice.
Chase Brown (CIN) Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical rationale for betting on Chase Brown to land under 14.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars game is based on Brown's recent performance and hit rates. Brown's overall hit rate for the last 3, 5, and 10 games is very low, with 0/3, 0/5, and 1/10 respectively. This trend indicates a continued struggle to reach the 14.5 reception yards mark. Although his home hit rate shows a better performance, the current streak of 0 and the low hit rate against the Jaguars (1/1) suggest that his chances are slim. Moreover, the model edge of 0.0515941454655446 further supports this under bet. Therefore, considering these statistics, the under 14.5 bet appears to be a statistically sound decision.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars : NA Moneyline (+128)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 'h2h' market is backed by strong recent performance data in their favor. The Jaguars have a perfect 5-0 overall record in their last five games and have outscored their opponents by an average of 7.4 points per game. This is significantly better than the away team's 1.6 points per game differential. Additionally, the Jaguars' Expected Points Added (EPA) advantage of 8.84 is considerably higher than the away team's EPA differential of 1.64, indicating a more efficient offensive performance. Notably, the Jaguars have also been taking care of the ball better, with a positive turnover differential in their last five games, as opposed to the away team's negative turnover margin. In head-to-head matchups, the Jaguars have a recent victory, which could provide a psychological advantage. Combining these factors with the model's 0.043 edge, the bet on the Jaguars seems statistically justified.
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