Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning : Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 (-175)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 is supported by their comparative performance and model insights. Despite a poor home record (1-4), the Flyers have a strong overall recent record (4-1) suggesting they are a solid team. Their goals against average at home (2.4) is lower than Tampa Bay's on the road (2.6), indicating a stronger defense. Also, the model predicts a close game (0.01), which favors a bet on the Flyers with a 1.5 goal head start. Furthermore, Tampa Bay's higher penalty minutes average (14.8 away vs Flyers' 0.8 at home) might provide more scoring opportunities for the Flyers. In sum, despite Tampa Bay's edge in the head-to-head record (3-2), the combination of Philadelphia's overall form, defensive strength, and the model's close game prediction supports the bet on Philadelphia Flyers +1.5.
Samuel Ersson (Philadelphia Flyers) Over 21.5 Saves (-132)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Samuel Ersson for over 21.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is backed by several significant statistics. Firstly, the model prediction of 23.55 indicates that Ersson is anticipated to make more saves than the line of 21.5. Additionally, his average number of saves in the last five home games is close to the line at 21. This suggests that his performance is consistently around this mark, and slightly improved performance would result in beating the line. The 'Shotsagainst' average of 23.6 also implies that Ersson has plenty of opportunities to make saves. Finally, the hit rate in the last 15 home games is quite high at 10/15, indicating that more often than not, Ersson exceeds the line. Therefore, these combined factors present a strong case for betting on Ersson to make over 21.5 saves in the game against Tampa Bay Lightning.
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