Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills : NA -9.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Buffalo Bills are statistically favored to cover the spread of -9.5 points in their upcoming NFL game. Over the last five games, the Bills' scoring average is 26.6 points for and 19.2 points against, resulting in a positive point differential of 7.4. This is in stark contrast to the home team's negative point differential of -5.6. Additionally, the Bills have a strong advantage in Expected Points Added (EPA), a measure of the contribution of each play to the team's scoring margin, with an overall EPA difference of 8.57 compared to the home team's -6.05. Moreover, the Bills' recent performance against this opponent shows a strong trend, with a 5-0 winning record in their last five encounters. Considering these factors, the statistical data supports the bet on the Buffalo Bills to cover a -9.5 spread.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills : NA Moneyline (+410)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale is favoring the Miami Dolphins due to superior recent performance in key statistical areas. Over the last five games, the Dolphins have outperformed their opponents in both scoring and EPA (Expected Points Added). They have scored 26.6 points on average compared to their opponents' 19.4, and have a positive EPA differential of 8.57, demonstrating their efficiency in converting plays into points. In contrast, the home team has struggled, scoring less (19.4 points) and allowing more points (25) on average. Their EPA metrics are also negative, indicating inefficiency in their gameplay. The Dolphins also have a strong recent head-to-head record against their opponents, winning all five of their last encounters. While the model edge is relatively slight (0.1139), these factors combined present a compelling case for betting on the Dolphins in the head-to-head market.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown in the game between Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills could be considered a risky option given his recent performance and trends. His overall hit rate is 12/57 and at home it's 7/26, both reflecting a low scoring probability. His recent form is also not encouraging, having failed to score in his last 5 games overall and at home. Against the Bills, his record improves slightly with a 2/5 hit rate, but at home vs Buffalo, it's 0/2 indicating he hasn't scored against them in Miami. His current hit streaks are also at zero, barring a streak of 1 against Buffalo, indicating a lack of consistent scoring form. The model offers a slight edge of 0.102722659162243, however, given Waddle's low scoring trends and recent form, this bet carries considerable risk.
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