Zavier Scott (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+650)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Analyzing the bet on Zavier Scott to score a touchdown anytime during the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Baltimore Ravens, one needs to consider Scott's recent performance and trends. His Last 5 (L5) averages and hit rates suggest he has been reliably finding the end zone. In addition, the model's edge of 0.192966908768075 implies that our predictive model sees a nearly 19.3% higher probability of Scott scoring a touchdown at any point in the game than the current market odds suggest. This indicates significant value and potential for a profitable bet. While the Ravens defense can be formidable, the player's recent performance indicates that he has the capacity to break through tough lines and score. Therefore, based on Scott's scoring consistency and the statistical model's edge, a bet on "Yes" to him scoring a touchdown in this game seems a rational choice.
Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +3.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Minnesota Vikings have a 3.5 point spread advantage and a model edge of 19.1%, which is a positive indicator for them. The Vikings' overall L5 performance presents a fairly balanced match against the home team, indicated by their comparable scores for (18.2 vs 20.2) and scores against (24 vs 26). However, the Vikings have shown significantly better performance on the road, scoring 28.8 points on average and outperforming the home team's home score for (26.6). In terms of EPA (Expected Points Added), the Vikings have demonstrated superior offensive efficiency on the road, with a positive EPA diff of 9.51, much higher than the home team's home EPA diff (6.02). Additionally, the Vikings have accumulated more total yards on the road (395.6 vs 341.4), indicating a higher offensive output. These factors suggest a statistical edge for the Vikings, making them a viable bet with a
Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA Moneyline (+185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on the Minnesota Vikings in the head-to-head market seems rational based on the given statistics. Crucially, the model gives the Vikings an edge of 0.169, indicating a higher predicted probability of winning. The Vikings' home record over the last five games stands at 3-2, suggesting a home advantage. In contrast, the opposing team's away record is 2-3, hinting at a weaker performance when not playing on their home turf. Looking at the Expected Points Added (EPA) data, the Vikings have a better home EPA difference (6.023) compared to the opponents' away EPA difference (-7.88). This indicates that the Vikings are adding more points when they're expected to, especially when playing at home. However, the overall recent performance of both teams is similar, with both teams having a 2-3 record in their last five games. This underscores the importance of the home advantage in this matchup.
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