Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills : NA -9.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Buffalo Bills have been significantly outperforming their opponents in their last five games, both in terms of points and yardage. With a 7.4 point differential and 364.8 yards gained per game, the Bills' offensive statistics suggest they can cover the 9.5 point spread. Their Expected Points Added (EPA) for both passing and rushing are also positive, indicating efficient offensive play. The Bills also have a strong record against this opponent, winning their last five encounters. In contrast, the home team's stats are less encouraging. They have a negative point differential of -5.6, indicating they lose by an average of nearly 6 points per game. They have been outgained in total yardage and their EPA for both passing and rushing are negative. They also have a poor recent record, with only one win in their last five games, and have lost their last five games against the Bills. In summary, the Bills' superior performance metrics and track record
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
While Jaylen Waddle has shown potential in the past, especially against the Buffalo Bills with a 2/5 hit rate, his recent performance doesn't inspire confidence. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is a mere 2/20, and he hasn't scored a touchdown in his last 10 games overall or his last 5 games at home. Furthermore, he hasn't scored a touchdown against Buffalo at home in his last two attempts. His current hit streaks are zero both overall and at home, which doesn't bode well for a positive outcome. Considering these statistics, it appears that the probability of Waddle scoring a touchdown in this game is relatively low, despite a model edge of 0.110565796417145. Therefore, betting on Waddle for 'Yes' in the 'player_anytime_td' market would require a high-risk tolerance.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills : NA Moneyline (+390)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet for the Miami Dolphins to win in the head-to-head (h2h) market is supported by their superior performance data over the last five games. The Dolphins have an overall point difference of +7.4, a stark contrast to the home team's -5.6. Additionally, their Expected Points Added (EPA) for difference is significantly higher (+8.57 compared to -6.05), indicating that the Dolphins are generally more efficient with the ball. Furthermore, the Dolphins' average total yards for (364.8) exceed the home team's (295.6), suggesting a more potent offense. They have also been better at protecting the ball with fewer turnovers for (1.2 vs 2). Historically, the Dolphins have dominated the matchup, with a 5-0 record against the home team in the last five encounters. Despite the home team's slightly better home record (2-3 vs the Dolphins' away record of 2-3),
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