Brenton Strange (JAX) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+225)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Brenton Strange to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills seems statistically unfavorable. Strange's recent performance indicates a low scoring probability. He has not scored a touchdown in his last 3, 5, or 10 games overall, or in his last 3 or 5 home games. His overall touchdown rate is only 3 out of 31 games, indicating a low hit rate of roughly 9.7%. However, it's worth noting that he does have a relatively better scoring record against the Bills, with a 50% hit rate in their previous encounters. Despite this, the sample size is too small (only 2 games) to confidently predict a similar outcome in this match. Considering these stats, the rationale for betting on Strange to score a touchdown at any time would largely be based on his past performance against the Bills, which may not be a strong enough indicator given his overall performance.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+185)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting data for Trevor Lawrence in the 'player_anytime_td' market shows a lack of recent success. The Jaguars quarterback has not scored a touchdown in any of his last 20 games, with an overall hit rate of 9/66. This includes a 0/10 record in his last 10 games, and a 0/5 record in his last five. The data is equally bleak when we look at his performance at home (4/34 overall, 0/10 in the last ten home games) and against the Bills (0/2 overall). These statistics suggest that Lawrence's chances of scoring a touchdown are slim. While the model gives a slight edge of 0.151227164250892, this doesn't seem to outweigh the evidence of Lawrence's recent performances. Therefore, the statistical reasoning does not support betting on Lawrence to score a touchdown in the upcoming game against the Bills.
Parker Washington (JAX) Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Given the available data, betting on Parker Washington to exceed 51.5 receiving yards in the upcoming Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills game seems a risky proposition. Washington's past performance has consistently fallen short of this mark. His hit rates for exceeding 51.5 receiving yards are low across all specified categories: 0/3 for his last three games overall, 0/3 for his last three home games, and 0/5 for his last five games overall. Even his overall hit rate stands at a mere 4/33. Additionally, he has no current hit streak that would suggest an upward trend in performance. The model edge of 0.143 is relatively low, indicating that the statistical model does not suggest a strong probability of winning this bet. Therefore, the statistics suggest that it might be wise to avoid this particular bet.
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