Casey DeSmith (Dallas Stars) Over 23.5 Saves (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on Casey DeSmith to make over 23.5 saves is supported by his recent performance data and the model's prediction. Over his last five home games, DeSmith has averaged 23.2 saves, just below the betting line. However, his overall average over the last five games is much higher, at 27.6 saves, suggesting he performs well regardless of the home or away scenario. Furthermore, his shots against average at home is 25.4, indicating a high level of activity in goal. The model's prediction of 25.91 saves, despite a standard deviation of 7.68, is still above the betting line. These figures, coupled with his hit rate in the last 10 games (7/10) and current home game hit streak, provide a statistical basis for betting on DeSmith to make over 23.5 saves in the upcoming game.
Dallas Stars vs Buffalo Sabres : Buffalo Sabres +1.5 (-192)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Buffalo Sabres +1.5 is backed by several key stats. Despite a poor head-to-head record against the Dallas Stars, the Sabres have been excellent on the road recently, with a 5-0 record in their last five away games. Their average goals against are also lower than the Stars, with 1.6 compared to Dallas' 2.8, indicating a strong defensive performance. Furthermore, the model prediction suggests a close game with a standard deviation of 1.72, meaning the Sabres are likely to either win or keep the game within a one-goal margin. Considering these factors, the Sabres getting 1.5 goals offers a solid bet. This bet doesn't require Buffalo to win, but rather to not lose by more than one goal, which aligns well with their recent defensive performances and the model's tight game prediction.
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