Ottawa Senators vs Washington Capitals : Washington Capitals +1.5 (-217)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Washington Capitals with a 1.5 puck line is primarily based on the comparative performance of the two teams. Over their last 5 games, the Ottawa Senators have shown a weaker defensive performance, with an average of 3.8 goals against overall and 3 goals against at home. The Washington Capitals, despite having lower scoring averages, have shown a consistent defensive game, with an average of 4 goals against both overall and away. This suggests that the Capitals are more defensively stable. Moreover, the model's prediction of -0.22 indicates a slight edge towards the Capitals. The Senators' home record and overall record are also slightly weaker than the Capitals, further strengthening the rationale for the bet on the Capitals. This analysis suggests that even with a 1.5 puck line disadvantage, the Capitals are likely to cover the spread given their comparative performance stats.
Logan Thompson (Washington Capitals) Over 24.5 Saves (-125)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Logan Thompson's recent performance data suggests a strong likelihood of him exceeding 24.5 saves in the upcoming game. His average saves in the last five away games is 29.6, significantly higher than the line set by the bookmaker. Additionally, the model's prediction of 26.49 saves also exceeds the line, further supporting this bet. Thompson's average shots against in the last five away games is 32.8, indicating that he's consistently faced a high volume of shots, which provides more opportunities for saves. His hit rate in the last four away games is 75% (3 out of 4), demonstrating a strong trend of surpassing this save target. Despite a current hit streak of 0, the overall data suggests a high likelihood of Thompson making over 24.5 saves in the upcoming match.
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