Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers : NA -4.5 Point Spread (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 in the 'spreads' market is backed by several key statistics. The Steelers have consistently outperformed the home team in recent games, with an overall last 5 (L5) score of 23.8 points versus 16.8, and a positive point differential compared to the home team's negative. This trend continues in the Expected Points Added (EPA) for and against, where Steelers show a positive differential while the home team's is negative. The Steelers also outperform the home team in total yards for, indicating a more effective offense. The home team's recent record also supports this bet, showing a pattern of underperformance with 1 win and 4 losses in their overall L5 games, and the same 1-4 record in home/away L5 games. In contrast, the Steelers have a winning record in both categories. These factors suggest that the Steelers are likely to not only win, but do so
Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-169)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the available data, there's a statistically sound rationale for betting on Cedric Tillman to achieve Under 1.5 receptions in the Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game. While Tillman has been on a decent overall hitting streak (4), his performance specifically against Pittsburgh is less impressive. He has a hit rate of only 1/2 against Pittsburgh in his last 3, 5, 10, and 20 games, both overall and at home. This suggests that when facing the Steelers, Tillman is less likely to make multiple receptions. His current hit streak against Pittsburgh is also at zero, both overall and at home, which reinforces the prediction that he may underperform in this game. Furthermore, the model edge in favor of the Under outcome is 0.121764891395024, which provides an additional statistical indication that this bet could be successful.
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers : Over 35.5 Total Points (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 35.5 in the 'totals' market is supported by the scoring data from both the home and away teams. The home team has scored an average of 16.8 points in their last five games, with 24.2 points scored against them. The away team, on the other hand, has scored an average of 23.8 points and had 23.6 points scored against them in their last five games. This equates to a total of 40.6 and 47.4 potential points, respectively, both of which are over the 35.5 point threshold. Furthermore, both teams have had a high explosive rate in the last five games, suggesting the potential for high scoring plays. It's also worth noting that both teams' EPA (Expected Points Added) is negative, indicating that both teams are allowing more points than expected. These factors combined support the bet on Over 35.5.
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