Chase Brown (CIN) Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical data strongly supports betting on Chase Brown's player reception yards to be under 21.5 in the Cincinnati Bengals versus Arizona Cardinals game. Brown's recent performance shows a downward trend, with his overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games being zero. His home hit rate follows a similar pattern, with no hits in the last 3 and 5 games. While he has had success in the past against the Cardinals (1/1 hit rate), his overall performance suggests this is an outlier, not a trend. Furthermore, Brown's current hit streak in both overall and home games is zero, indicating a lack of momentum. The data shows that Brown has struggled to exceed 21.5 reception yards recently, making the under bet a statistically sound choice.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 19.5 Player rush yds alternate (+529)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Joe Burrow to rush for over 19.5 yards seems to be a risky proposition. His recent performance does not support this outcome. In his last five games, regardless of location or opposition, Burrow has not hit this mark, indicating his current form is not conducive to rushing yard success. His overall hit rate of 11/52 (21%) also suggests that this outcome is unusual for him. His track record against the Cardinals (0/1) and his home record (5/23 or 22%) also do not inspire confidence. His current hit streak for this outcome is zero, further highlighting the risk associated with this bet. While the model suggests a slight edge, the larger historical and recent context of Burrow's performances suggest that this outcome is unlikely. Therefore, the bet seems to be quite speculative and not highly supported by the data.
Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Joe Burrow to achieve over 4.5 rush yards in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals game seems like a risky move considering his overall recent performance. However, there are specific situations where Burrow has performed well, which could tip the scales in favor of this bet. When playing at home, Burrow's hit rate over the last 20 games is 60% (12/20), suggesting a home field advantage. Moreover, when playing against the Cardinals, Burrow has a 100% hit rate in every time frame (1/1), indicating he may perform better against this particular team. The model edge of 0.138 suggests a modest advantage for this bet. However, given Burrow's lack of recent success in the rush yards market (0/5 in the last 5 games and 0/3 in the last 3 games), this bet may be more suited to risk-tolerant bettors.
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