Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction & Picks (Andrei Iosivas Impact) : Odds & Edges

The statistical data overwhelmingly favors an under 13.5 yards bet for Andrei Iosivas. Iosivas has consistently struggled to surpass the 13.5 yards mark, particularly in his recent performances. In his last five games, he has not exceeded this mark once, and his overall hit rate is just 12/39. Even when playing at home, his performance doesn't improve much, with a hit rate of only 6/21. Furthermore, his current hit streaks are at zero for both overall and home games. The only instance where Iosivas has performed well against this mark is against Arizona, with a hit rate of 1/1. However, this is a single data point and not enough to outweigh his overall weak performance. Therefore, the under bet seems to be the most reasonable choice based on the data provided.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals : NA -7 Point Spread (-110)

The Cincinnati Bengals are the favored team considering their relatively stronger performance in the last five games. Their overall score and Expected Points Added (EPA) for and against are superior to the away team. The Bengals have an overall L5 point difference of 1.4 and an EPA difference of 2.68, which are both higher than the away team's -12.2 point difference and -15.32 EPA difference. Moreover, the Bengals have a better record in their last five games (2-3) compared to the away team's 0-5. They also have an advantage in turnovers, with a 1.0 turnover difference in their favor, which could potentially lead to more scoring opportunities. The model also gives a slight edge to the Bengals (0.042). Despite the Bengals having a negative point difference in their last five home games, their overall and home records, as well as their superior offensive and defensive stats, provide a statistically sound rationale to bet on

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals : NA -7 Point Spread (-110)

The betting rationale for the Cincinnati Bengals -7 in the 'spreads' market primarily stems from their superior performance metrics and the inferior metrics of their opponents. The Bengals in their last 5 games have scored an average of 26.2 points as opposed to their opponents' 19.4. The Bengals also have a positive point differential, indicating they outscore their opponents, while their opponents have a negative point differential, meaning they are regularly outscored. Moreover, the Bengals have a home record of 2-3, which, though not impressive, is better than their opponents' 0-5 away record. Also, they have sound EPA (Expected Points Added) stats with a positive home overall EPA difference, while their opponents have a negative EPA difference both in overall and 'home vs away' stats. Lastly, the Bengals have a better turnover differential, indicating their defense tends to cause more turnovers than their offense gives away. This could provide extra scoring opportunities, further justifying

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals : Under 53.5 Total Points (-108)

Betting the under 53.5 in the totals market for this game is statistically supported by key indicators from the last five games (L5) for both teams. The home team has an average score of 26.2 points, while the away team has an average of 19.4, totalling 45.6 points which is well below the proposed total of 53.5. Additionally, the home team has been allowing an average of 24.8 points and the away team, 31.6 points per game, indicating a higher possibility of a lower scoring game. The expected points added (EPA) for each team also supports the under; both teams have negative EPA differentials in recent games suggesting inefficient offenses. The home team has a -10.05 EPA differential at home and the away team -15.32 on the road. This highlights an inability to consistently produce high scoring games, making the under 53.5 a statistically sound bet.

Tee Higgins (CIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)

Betting on Tee Higgins to score a touchdown at any time during the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals game is risky, given his recent performance data. Higgins has not scored in his last five games, both overall and at home. Moreover, he hasn't scored in his last three games overall and at home, and his recent hit streaks are also at zero. This indicates a downward trend in his scoring performance. While his overall hit rate is around 31% (17/54) and his home hit rate stands at 33% (8/24), his recent performance points towards a lack of scoring consistency. The model's edge for this bet is also very small at 0.014, suggesting that the predicted and bookmaker odds are very close, providing little advantage. Therefore, the statistical data suggests that this bet carries a high risk.