Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-149)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Cedric Tillman to have under 1.5 receptions in the Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills game is backed by a number of factors. Firstly, Tillman's hit rate, the ratio of games in which he's had 1.5 or fewer receptions, has been consistently high. His overall hit rate is 13/29 (44.8%), while his home hit rate is 8/17 (47%). Furthermore, his recent performance shows an even stronger trend, with a hit rate of 3/3 in the last three games and 2/3 at home. His current hit streaks are also promising, standing at three overall and two at home. This suggests that Tillman is in a pattern of catching fewer passes. Additionally, the model predicts a 14.6% edge in betting on this outcome, indicating a high probability of it occurring. This combination of factors makes the 'Under 1.5' bet a solid choice.
Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills : NA -10.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the provided statistics, the Buffalo Bills have a strong advantage over their opponent. Looking at their last five games, the Bills have been scoring an average of 32.6 points per game, while their opponents averaged only 16 points. This alone gives a strong indication that the Bills could comfortably cover a -10.5 spread. Furthermore, the Bills have a positive point differential of 7.2 and a high EPA (expected points added) differential of 8.57, indicating their ability to make game-changing plays. This is reinforced by their explosive rate of 0.246, suggesting they are often making significant ground on their offensive drives. In contrast, their opponent has a negative point differential of -8.2 and an EPA differential of -9.76, showing they are struggling to score points and prevent their opponents from scoring. The home team's record also favors the Bills, as their opponent's overall record in the last five games is 1-4 while the Bills
Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical data suggests that betting on Cedric Tillman to stay under 13.5 reception yards in the game between the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills is a sensible decision. Tillman's recent performance indicates a downward trend, with an overall hit rate of 0 in the last 3, 5, and 10 games. His home hit rate shows a similar pattern, failing to go above 13.5 reception yards in the last 3 and 5 matches. Even when extended to the last 10 home games, his hit rate is only 1/10. Furthermore, he is currently on an overall and home hit streak of 0 games. Although his longer-term performance (last 20 and overall games) shows better hit rates, the recent trends weigh more heavily on the prediction. This, combined with a model edge of 0.0388, supports the under 13.5 bet for Tillman.
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