Cole Kmet (CHI) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The data suggests a strong rationale for betting on Cole Kmet to finish with under 22.5 reception yards in the game against the Green Bay Packers. Kmet has failed to surpass this total in his last five games overall, and in all of his last five home games. His performance specifically against the Packers also supports this bet, with Kmet falling short of the 22.5 yards mark in four of his last five meetings with them, and all three at home. Furthermore, Kmet's hit rate in the last 20 games is only 15%, dropping to 10% in home games and 0% when playing at home against the Packers. His current hit streaks in all these categories are also at zero, except for against the Packers where it's at one. The model's edge of 0.197 also favors this under bet.
DJ Moore (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
DJ Moore has been consistently delivering strong performances, making him a good pick for the 'player_anytime_td' market. His recent statistical data underscores his ability to score at any given time. Over the last five games, Moore's average performance has been remarkably robust, indicating a high probability of scoring a touchdown. This is further reinforced by the model edge of 0.110151958058074, which suggests a positive expectation for this bet. Furthermore, Moore has demonstrated a solid hit rate and has been on a scoring streak in recent games. Given these factors, betting on DJ Moore to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers seems statistically sound. However, it's important to consider the strength of the Packers' defense, which might affect Moore's opportunities to score.
Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 17.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical trend for Caleb Williams strongly indicates that an under 17.5 bet on his rushing yards is a smart choice. Williams has shown a consistent inability to reach this benchmark, with an overall hit rate of just 7 out of 31 attempts. This pattern is even more pronounced in recent games, with Williams failing to hit the target in his last 10 overall games and his last 5 home games. Furthermore, his performance against Green Bay is also below-par, with only 1 successful hit in 2 attempts. At home against the Packers, he has never hit the target. Currently, he is on a streak of 0 successful attempts overall and at home, indicating a downward trend. Although the model edge is relatively low at 0.095709550872064, the consistent underperformance of Williams makes an under 17.5 bet a solid choice.
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